Russia

A shock and awe campaign could overwhelm Eastern Europe

A couple of weeks ago, in a biting sleet wind, I visited the graveyard of the tiny village of Bohoniki in Poland’s far north east, home to Poland’s minuscule Tatar Muslim minority, descendents of the Mongol Golden Horde. On the graveyard hillock beneath the swaying pine trees, below gilded crescent moons and Arabic calligraphy, the names on the headstones — Miroslawa Safarewicz, Ali Bogdanowicz, Aleksander Sulkiewicz — spoke of centuries of Tatar assimilation since their arrival on horseback in Poland in the Middle Ages.

By the time you read this article, Russian troops may have entered Ukraine or even captured its capital Kiev in a blitzkrieg that would have made Field Marshal von Paulus green with envy. Or, maybe you would witness nothing but more sabre rattling by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The two contrasting possibilities, even if one is closer to a probability, illustrate the fact that no one knows what Putin, the consummate poker player keeping his cards close to his chest, has in mind.

At the risk of ending up with egg on my face, I belong to the group who think there would be no full-scale invasion. To back that assertion one could cite three reasons.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to hold talks with Germany, France and Ukraine as NATO fails to take action on the rising conflict in Easter Europe and President Joe Biden’s announcement on Friday that he would deploy troops ‘in the near term’ without backing from NATO.

The blow to NATO and exclusion of America in negotiation talks on the Russian-Ukraine crisis came after Putin accused the U.S. and NATO of ignoring the Kremlin’s ‘fundamental concerns’ over NATO’s growth during a call with French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday.

Was splitting NATO the goal all along?

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine’s leaders sought to reassure the nation that a feared invasion from neighboring Russia was not imminent, even as they acknowledged the threat is real and prepared to accept a shipment of American military equipment Tuesday to shore up their defenses.

Russia has denied it is planning an assault, but it has massed an estimated 100,000 troops near Ukraine in recent weeks, leading the United States and its NATO allies to rush to prepare for a possible war.

Canada orders diplomats’ families to leave Ukraine

The Canadian government has ordered family members of diplomatic staff in Ukraine to leave the country, CTV News has confirmed.

Late Monday night Canada updated its travel advisory suggesting any non-essential Canadians should leave Ukraine.

The dangerous delusions about “diplomatic engagement.”

For nearly two decades Russian President Vladimir Putin has challenged the West’s “rules-based international order” seemingly validated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which Putin has called “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” During that time, Western leaders have imposed economic sanctions on Russia, and diplomats have scolded Putin for his violation of human rights and the borders of his neighbors, illiberal policies and murders of political rivals, and ongoing attempts to restore the old Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.

Warnings from the West are becoming ever clearer, with many seeing a Russian invasion of Ukraine as a growing possibility.

Russia has amassed 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine and NATO is sending ships and fighter jets into Eastern Europe — in direct contravention of the Kremlin’s demands, which wants those forces removed.

For Europe, there presents a serious conundrum: What to do if Russian troops cross the border and invade Ukraine?