As U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration considers economic threats to thwart what it fears is a new Kremlin plan to invade Ukraine, there is one option that is reportedly on the short list: cutting Russia off from the global electronic-payment-messaging system known as SWIFT.
The dangerous delusions about “diplomatic engagement.”
For nearly two decades Russian President Vladimir Putin has challenged the West’s “rules-based international order” seemingly validated by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which Putin has called “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” During that time, Western leaders have imposed economic sanctions on Russia, and diplomats have scolded Putin for his violation of human rights and the borders of his neighbors, illiberal policies and murders of political rivals, and ongoing attempts to restore the old Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.
Warnings from the West are becoming ever clearer, with many seeing a Russian invasion of Ukraine as a growing possibility.
Russia has amassed 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine and NATO is sending ships and fighter jets into Eastern Europe — in direct contravention of the Kremlin’s demands, which wants those forces removed.
For Europe, there presents a serious conundrum: What to do if Russian troops cross the border and invade Ukraine?
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says how Canada will respond to continued Russian threats against Ukraine will be on the agenda for a three-day virtual cabinet retreat set to get underway Monday.
The federal cabinet is meeting as tensions remain high over a potential Russian incursion into Ukraine. NATO officials announced earlier in the day that additional forces from the military alliance are being put on standby to deploy into eastern Europe as part of a bid to deter Russia.
For all the assessments of Putin as a geopolitical mastermind, he could be in over his head when it comes to Ukraine.
When will Russian president Vladimir Putin strike Ukraine again? It may be sooner than you think. President Joe Biden stated in his recent press conference that he’s convinced that Russian troops will attack, and Washington’s national security establishment is on edge.
Right now, more than 100,000 Russian troops plus an array of tanks and weapons surround Ukraine from three sides. Last week, a cyberattack hit a number of Ukrainian government websites to test their vulnerabilities and weaknesses. Russia also sent soldiers into Belarus (no one knows exactly how many) and six Russian ships are on the move to the Black Sea where they could be deployed as part of an amphibious attack on Ukraine from the south. Meanwhile, the troop numbers keep climbing.
Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly has an “open invitation” to visit Moscow to meet with Russian officials, an offer first extended in December, says Ambassador to Canada Oleg Stepanov.
In an interview on CTV’s Question Period airing Sunday, Stepanov said the Russian government would welcome the meeting.
“Your excellency Joly had the chance to chat with [Foreign] Minister [Sergei] Lavrov on the margins of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe meeting last December in Stockholm and expressed her interest to come to Moscow for consultations at some point and my minister extended the official invitation,” he said.
The public has been so busy waiting for the war in Ukraine to start that it hasn’t noticed how much of it has already happened since it started in 2014, when the near-success of the Ukrainian government counteroffensive against Russian-backed militias forced Moscow to commit conventional forces to save the effort. Although “Ukraine, Russia, the DPR, and the LPR signed an agreement to establish a ceasefire, called the Minsk Protocol, on 5 September 2014,” the brigades had entered the stage.
German navy chief resigns over Ukraine comments
The head of the German navy has resigned over controversial comments he made over Ukraine.
Kay-Achim Schönbach said the idea that Russia wanted to invade Ukraine was nonsense. He added that all President Vladimir Putin wanted was respect.
A number of countries have supplied weapons to Ukraine, including the US and UK. But Germany has refused Ukraine’s request for ammunition.
Russia has denied claims that it is planning to invade Ukraine.
German navy chief Schönbach resigns over comments on Putin, Crimea
Germany faced a diplomatic incident on Saturday following comments made by Navy chief Kay-Achim Schönbach on Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Ukraine crisis. Schönbach stepped down from his position late on Saturday.
Schönbach made the comments during a talk that he gave in a visit to India. Speaking at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, the German vice admiral said Putin “probably” deserved respect.
“What he really wants is respect,” the vice admiral said, speaking in English in remarks that were posted on a video on YouTube.
“You can’t interview me I’m kind of famous in Ukraine ha ha!”
OK, I confess I didn’t know who the woman was, but her thoughts didn’t exactly seem preoccupied by a possible invasion on her country.
Her mood is matched by many at the snowy Kyiv food market we cross paths in, which wouldn’t look out of place on a Christmas card.
“Russia can do anything thanks to Putin, who is unpredictable,” says Volodymyr, who’s less concerned about his celebrity status.
“As long as Putin is there, risk will always remain.”
‘We have hundreds of Russian tanks and armoured vehicles deployed along the Ukrainian border… The U.K. and the U.S. have already shipped the military equipment and we would appreciate if Canada follows suit’
As Russia continues its troop build-up along the border with Ukraine, China has markedly increased its military activity near Taiwan. The twin geopolitical flashpoints, separated by 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles), are raising concerns that Russia and China could coordinate or conduct concurrent military offensives that the United States and its allies may find difficult to stop.
A failure to deter Russia and China — deterrence, especially military pre-positioning near the area under threat, is the least costly way to avoid war — would deal a potentially crushing blow to the post-World War II liberal international order. That system, whose principles and norms — including adherence to the rule of law, respect for human rights and the promotion of liberal democracy, as well as preserving the sanctity of territorial sovereignty and existing boundaries — has regulated the conduct of international relations for nearly 80 years.
Canada today offered Ukraine a $120 million dollar loan to help the eastern European nation face down what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called an “aggressive” attempt by Russia to destabilize it.
The prime minister also hinted at more military assistance for Ukraine, while insisting again that Moscow “de-escalate” and refrain from further invading and occupying Ukrainian territory.
The federal government said the loan announced today is meant to go toward “economic resilience and governance reforms.” The terms of the loan are to be negotiated with the government of President Volodomyr Zelensky in Kyiv.
President Biden was actually operating from a coherent perspective in discussing Russia and Ukraine in Wednesday’s press conference: In every instance, as you go line-for-line in the transcript, his foreign policy—and the fact that he announced it to the world—is one where Russia has leverage over Biden and the president has a personal vendetta against the current Ukrainian government.
In an interview on CTV News Channel’s Power Play with host Evan Solomon on Thursday, Stepanov said the possibility of new sanctions wouldn’t influence the country’s future actions.
If that were true, he’d be saying, “No, please don’t sanction us!”
If you’re not making an extra effort to find some well reasoned thinking about the developing crisis in Ukraine, I’m not sure what to do for you. Well, perhaps I can point you in a direction to some of the better thinking on the issue I’ve found out there.
One of the best this week comes from Rob Lee over at FPRI.
He sets the table for you right off the bat in the first paragraph;
How ambitious are Russia’s foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various ultimatums, but the most critical and pressing issue is that the Kremlin now regards Ukraine as a permanently hostile country continuing to increase its defense capabilities. Russian hopes for improved relations with President Volodymyr Zelensky were dashed in 2021, and Moscow is now focused on reducing the long-term security risk posed by Ukraine, including halting its expanding defense cooperation with NATO. However, this is one of the most unrealistic and difficult demands for NATO to satisfy, particularly because Ukraine is developing long-range missiles domestically. This diplomatic impasse suggests a significant risk of a Russian military escalation in Ukraine with few obvious offramps.
h/t Jojodogfacedboy
