Russia

Putin announces military operation in Ukraine

Russia’s Putin announces military operation in Ukraine

Breaking: Video reportedly shows large explosion in Kharkiv, Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/mX9QWr6my2

— PM Breaking News (@PMBreakingNews) February 24, 2022

From RT – Putin announces ‘special operation’ in Donbass

The special military operation will be aimed at “the defense of” the newly-recognized republics of Donetsk and Lugansk

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced he ordered his country’s military to conduct a special operation in the Donbass region after the leaders of the breakaway republics asked Moscow for military assistance in response to what they claim is an increase in “Ukrainian aggression.”

Assuming that remains the goal then nothing has really changed.

Mariupol pic.twitter.com/6VokxlCAGS

— Андрей (@AndreyZhukovv) February 24, 2022

Russian forces massing near Ukraine’s borders can only remain in position for a few days before they have to be sent back to nearby bases or risk their capability being significantly degraded, western officials and experts believe.

That means that President Vladimir Putin will come under increasing pressure to use them in a full invasion of Ukraine – or send them back to staging areas, still in Russia’s south or west, but tens or even hundreds of kilometres back.

Such advance positions, often with poor protection from the cold, can be held only for a short period – and there is some evidence on social media of the poor conditions endured by soldiers near the border.

The optics look dreadful.

Russia has deployed more than two-thirds of its military combat capability to within striking distance of Ukraine’s borders.

Its 30,000 troops that were supposed to withdraw from neighbouring Belarus at the weekend are still there. So are pontoon bridges and other logistic equipment needed for an invasion.

Violence is flaring in the two Russian-backed breakaway republics in Eastern Ukraine. Russia’s demands from Nato remain unmet and diplomacy has so far failed to bring about any significant withdrawal of Russian forces.

On Saturday, in a novel way to appeal for support, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky denounced world leaders for not aligning themselves more forcefully with his country. At the annual security conference in Munich, where Russian president Vladimir Putin in 2007 had originally decried what he depicted as America’s hubristic quest for global hegemony, Zelensky upbraided various governments for “arrogance” and “appeasement.” Even as Zelensky issued his complaints, however, Putin continued to up the pressure on Ukraine, conducting nuclear drills and taking in civilians into Russia from Donetsk.

They rushed to bolt the door and lock the windows of the little wooden house. It trembled from the battering of the men outside. Petro Mohalat, now aged 95, remembers the first food raids in the winter of 1932.

He was five years old when the communist “brigade” arrived in the village. His grandmother told the children to hide anywhere they could.

“It was very scary. The brigade had pitchforks and they came to every house searching for bread,” he recalls. “They used crowbars to come inside. Then they went to all the barns trying to find any buried bread.”

Has the Cold War returned with a vengeance? Some expert commentators seem to think so. Russia’s mobilization of over 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders this winter has led the United States and some allied NATO countries to threaten economic and political sanctions, including those specifically against the Kremlin’s leadership. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and destabilization of eastern Ukraine since then has created uncertainty as to how far President Vladimir Putin might be willing to go, either in the way of scaled-up political pressure backed by military power, or in the worst extreme, an actual large-scale invasion with ambitious objectives, including possible regime change in Kiev. Several prognosticators and some Russian officials also assume that, should Russia decide to initiate a major military operation against Ukraine, the result would be a veritable walkover, with Ukrainian forces unable to offer more than a feeble and temporary resistance against overwhelming Russian combined ground, air, and naval forces.

This week, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Foreign Minister Wobke Hoekstra (no relation) met with Ukrainian leaders in Kiev. The visit was intended to signal Dutch support to the government of Ukraine in the face of Russian build-up provocations on its border. As with other European national security moves, the meeting may be too little too late.

It was a positive step, strongly supported by the Biden Administration as a sign of NATO unity. The visit, however, recalled efforts — such as the one below — by U.S. and European ambassadors to stop Nord Stream 2, the pipeline from Russia to Germany that then connects to much of the rest of Europe. The Russian threat outlined by the Trump administration was very clear — that Russia would then be able to shut off its gas to Europe in the middle of winter, if it chose to, as a form of blackmail, at which point the US might then be expected to save Europe from its own deal — and the long-term policy and security consequences of completing the pipeline were communicated. Put very simply, building closer economic ties with Russia and Putin is an extremely bad and dangerous idea.

Germany will get its Russian gas. NATO is a paper tiger. Time the US ended Europe’s free ride but Biden won’t do it.