UK

These results are more than a warning for Keir Starmer and Labour — they signal a deeper collapse in the old order and a shift to Reform and the Greens

The first possible mistake will be to compare the result with expectations. Because some forecasts saw Labour losing 70 per cent of its seats, there might be reports which position losing, say, half their seats as a relief. Yet if a discrepancy does emerge between forecasts and outcome that is a piece of information only about forecasters. The information about Labour remains an utter disaster wherever in the range it lies.

Similarly the test for the Conservatives cannot be that they have failed to be utterly obliterated. It’s terrible for the main opposition party to be losing seats on this scale.

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‘Delusional’ Starmer urged to go by Labour MPs, ministers and unions as local elections ‘disaster’ sees Reform smash through Red Wall strongholds

Keir Starmer is under pressure to set out a timeline for his departure after a crushing defeat in elections across Britain prompted senior Labour MPs to call for him to step down within a year.

In a disastrous set of results, Labour had lost control of more than 25 councils and almost 1,000 council seats in England by Friday evening, many to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which made large gains across the Midlands and the north as well as taking seats from the Tories in the south.

After more than a century of domination, Labour has faced near-wipeout in Wales, where the party’s first minister, Eluned Morgan, lost her seat. Labour could slump to third place in Scotland behind the SNP and Reform. In London, a Green surge meant Labour lost control of councils it had dominated, including Hackney and Waltham Forest.

Labour loses Wales for the first time ever as mutinous MPs blame Starmer for once-in-a-generation elections disaster – with Greens racking up seats and Reform rampant

Keir Starmer entered Downing Street promising the political equivalent of a monastery. He was silent on matters of substance, except to say that his administration would be founded on integrity, service, and an end to scandal—a government ‘whiter than white’ with the adults, finally, back in the room. No more circus. No more rogues. Just a decent, serious man restoring trust after the bacchanal of Boris Johnson and a Tory party that went through leaders like others are rumoured to go through Ukrainian rent boys. Exhausted by 14 years of Tory chaos, the nation acquiesced to the Ming vase strategy.

Savitha Prakash, an NHS doctor living in the London borough of Harrow, believes there are similarities between the Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, and India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi. “He’s [Modi] one of those people, like Nigel, he walks the talk. He made [a] difference to the country,” said Prakash, who chairs Reform UK’s branch in Harrow.

In particular, the 47-year-old said Farage and Modi – who have each been accused by their critics of scapegoating marginalised communities – were focused on putting the needs of the majority first.

“There was a time before [Modi] came into power that minority appeasement was normal,” she said. “Everybody believed that if you want to be in power, you have to appease the minority. Today’s Nigel speaks the same thing [as Modi]. He speaks about looking out for the majority.”

President Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw the US from Nato. At home, Starmer refuses to say when the government’s military funding plan will be published, let alone how much additional money will reach our armed forces. Britain’s weakened national defence could just about scrape through times of peace, but in a period of global instability, alarm bells are sounding.

Conjuring up extra defence spending will be no mean feat. But restoring Britain’s military might, or even scraping together a dad’s army band of have-a-go heroes, requires more than just money. While civil servants battle over budgets, there’s a more existential question that few are willing to ask. Who, exactly, is prepared to fight for Britain today?

There is a one-in-four chance that the UK could be involved in a major conflict within the next ten years unless defence spending is significantly increased, a “super-forecasting engine” has estimated.

Cassi AI, billed by its founder as “just off the best forecast that humanity can make under uncertainty”, has increased the odds of war from a one-in-five chance, which it was before the Iran conflict began on February 28.