Le Pen’s loss is far from the republican’s victory
Contrary to those punching the air and heaving enormous sighs of relief, it is difficult to draw any definitive conclusions about the recent legislative election in France. The ecstasy felt by many at seeing the National Rally (RN) fall far short of winning a majority had little to do with reality and much to do with wishful thinking and media hype.
The Left-wing coalition victory in France is a triumph for Pax Americana. But for how long?
Though routinely mentioned in the same breath as the Nazi collaborationist Vichy government, in policy terms the Rassemblement National (RN) is more accurately understood less as “fascist” than as a group of anti-universalist social democrats. For instance, Marine Le Pen’s party doesn’t question the legitimacy of social welfare as such. Rather, the RN has sought to entrench in French law the principle of “national preference”, with welfare and social housing prioritised for French citizens over foreign nationals.
France is like a man falling from a building who, floor by floor, says to himself “so far so good.”
After the announcement of the first exit polls in France, both professional and social media were very soon flooded with the message: “France is being saved from fascism.” I would add “again,” because in recent years it seems that even when Jean Marie Le Pen was president of the then Front National, France has done nothing but save itself from the extreme Right. On the other hand, many on the Right have spoken of the fall of France, not for the first time either, and the apparent triumph of chaos. Some have mentioned Michel Houllebecq’s novel Submission, a ‘fictional’ story in which all parties support an Islamist candidate to prevent the victory of the FN candidate. The Islamist becomes president of the Republic and France moves steadily and smoothly towards Islamisation. Today, that story doesn’t seem very fictional; after all, Islam is increasingly present in France.
France preparing for Sharia Law legislation. pic.twitter.com/eQIAqFLY4j
— Imtiaz Mahmood (@ImtiazMadmood) July 8, 2024
Macron’s snap election fuels existing anti-establishment sentiment, leaving France with no clear leadership.
The French Parliamentary second round elections on July 7 have delivered unexpected results with the left’s New Popular Front winning a relative majority with 172-192 of the 577 seats, followed by Macron’s Presidential Majority with 150-170 seats and National Rally with 132-152 seats. Since no party garnered an absolute majority, the future of France’s political leadership remains undecided.
Marine Le Pen celebrated the “rising tide” of populism in France, declaring that victory for her National Rally is “only postponed” after winning the most seats in the National Assembly in the history of her anti-mass migration party on Sunday.
Barring a surprise, which is still possible, today France may have its first elected ultra-right government led by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (formerly National Front). The only other time that that brand of politics emerged as government in France was in the 1940s under Marshal Petain during the German occupation.
At a broader level, this would be the second time since the general election in the Weimar Republic in Germany in 1932 that an ultra-right party wins a straight parliamentary majority in a major European democracy.
Should we rush to join those on the ultra-left who are crying wolf about “fascism” seizing control of France?
PARIS—A coalition of leftist parties won the most seats in France’s parliamentary elections, according to projections based on early ballot counts, in a stunning come-from-behind victory fueled by a groundswell of opposition to Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigrant forces.
A projection by polling firm Elabe estimated that the New Popular Front—a coalition of parties that includes socialists, greens and far-left France Unbowed—is expected to garner between 175 and 205 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly. The party of President Emmanuel Macron and its allies won between 150 and 175, according to Elabe, while Le Pen’s National Rally and its allies finished between 115 and 150 seats.
h/t DS
The Cher department in central France used to be a stronghold of the left.
During World War II, it was one of the heartlands of the French resistance fighters known as maquisards. France was at the time partly occupied by Nazi Germany, while the rest of the country was under the rule of French general Philippe Petain, whose Vichy government was collaborating with the Nazis.
Since the 1950s, several provincial towns of the Cher, such as Vierzon, even voted in the Communist Party.
Shops have been boarded up in cities across France as the country braces for possible violence in the aftermath of election results tonight.
In Paris, police warned local businesses along the busy retail strip of rue de Rivoli to secure their windows as anti-fascist protesters are expected to protest sweeping gains for Marine Le Pen’s party.
Polls opened today and results are expected late this evening, with reliable exit polls to be published at 7pm UK time.
Guardian Live Feed – French election 2024 live: Voting under way in seismic poll as far right aims to become dominant force in national assembly
BBC Live Feed – Turnout high in French election as far right seeks majority
At least 51 candidates and party activists have been attacked amid a climate of “great violence” during the campaign for France’s parliamentary elections, according to the French interior minister.
Gérald Darmanin, the interior minister, said he feared further disorder after Sunday’s second round, which polls say will leave the populist right National Rally as the biggest party but without an absolute majority.
It will be fixed so Macron remains in power.
When Emmanuel Macron first ascended to the French presidency in 2017, he was hailed as the man who could see off the hard right. His re-election in 2022 was taken as further proof that the ‘liberal’ centre could hold – that the ‘leprosy’ of populism, as Macron himself described it, could be contained by his technocratic centrism. Even just three weeks ago, when he dissolved the National Assembly and called snap legislative elections, following the right-wing National Rally (RN)’s thumping victory in the EU elections, Macron and his allies assumed that the populist wave would quickly peter out. Voters would ‘see sense’, they believed, and rally back around the supposedly sensible centre.
It’s France, elections are never “over”
France election results: More than 150 candidates pull out of race to block hard-Right win
More than 150 candidates have withdrawn ahead of France’s second round of elections on Sunday in a bid to block a hard-Right win.
Candidates from Emmanuel Macron’s party and the hard-Left announced they had pulled out on Monday afternoon, avoiding the potential for them to eat into each other’s vote share.
Marine Le Pen’s populist right-wing National Rally has scored a historic victory in snap parliamentary elections in France, although the contest will proceed to a second vote next week.
The hard-right party is on course to win between 33 and 35 per cent of the vote in the first round, according to early results from the first polling booths to have closed.
Polling institutes put the left-wing New Popular Front on between 28 per cent and 30 per cent, with President Macron’s ruling centrist coalition trailing on about 22 per cent.
The young people of France helped Marine Le Pen and her National Rally party secure a huge victory in the first round of the French parliamentary elections.
They love her! 🇫🇷 pic.twitter.com/D85xqyy0QF
— Cillian (@CilComLFC) June 30, 2024
JUST IN: Protesters begins to gather as many anticipate riots amid Marine Le Pen’s resounding victory during France’s first round of Parliamentary elections.
Le Pen’s “National Rally,” a right-wing party, offering a populist and nationalist agenda, is closer than ever to taking… pic.twitter.com/sWTeTMSwKD
— Dutch Burke (@DutchBurke) June 30, 2024
The explosion in crime, insecurity, and immigration explain the trend, pollsters say.
With less than three days to go until the first round of the French parliamentary elections, two polling institutes are simultaneously predicting a possible absolute majority for the Rassemblement National (RN) in the National Assembly.
Since Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the Assembly on June 9th, the Rassemblement National has been given the lead with more than 30% of the vote, but there is still uncertainty over the actual number of seats that Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party could win. However, two independent estimates consider it entirely possible that the national Right party and its allies could pass the 289 MP mark required to obtain an absolute majority.
France is still in shock after President Macron unexpectedly dissolved parliament and called a general election. People were torn between stupor and anger, incredulity and panic.
Macron’s decision followed the European elections where the hard-right National Rally topped the polls with 31.4 per cent of the vote, and Macron’s party, on 14.6 per cent, was almost pushed into third place. If the polls are correct, the upcoming parliamentary elections might force Macron to appoint a National Rally prime minister.
Marine Le Pen has accused France’s new Left-wing bloc of being “Islamo-Leftists” who want to strip the French of their freedoms.
Ms Le Pen, who leads the hard-Right National Rally, said that the New Popular Front, an alliance of Left-leaning parties formed in recent days, would be an “abomination for the country” as she went on the offensive in the election campaign.
