We’ve been warned for months that Canada faces exceedingly tough talks on renewing the CUSMA/USMCA trade deal. With Donald Trump blowing off the importance of Canada (“we don’t need anything they have”), it was shaping up as a cage match at the negotiating table.
As of this week, though, we face the very real possibility of an even more ominous prospect as the July 1 date for agreement or not-agreement on re-upping CUSMA approaches: no talks at all.
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Drivers are tiring of sticker shock at the pump.
Before U.S. President Donald Trump began waging war with Iran in late February, Canadians were paying roughly $1.32 a litre, while Americans were paying around US$2.98 per gallon. Today’s prices, on average, are about $1.75 per litre and US$4.03 per gallon, respectively.
The warning came quietly, but it was unmistakable. According to a Reuters report this week, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer made it clear: Canada’s dairy dispute will be resolved one of two ways, through negotiation or through enforcement.
That is not diplomatic nuance. That is a choice.
Canada and the United States have yet to start negotiations over their free trade deal, but they are already publicly squabbling over various issues, reflecting the depth of their ruptured relations.
As their talks to renew the North American trade pact that also includes Mexico have failed to get underway, Ottawa and Washington over the past week exchanged threats and insults, with the United States particularly perturbed over the decision by eight Canadian provinces last year to remove American wine and spirits from the shelves of government-owned liquor stores.
WOW
Ambassador Wiseman blames Donald Trump for strained U.S. relations amid reports that PM Carney obstructed talks as a negotiating tactic.
Wiseman reiterates Canada is "ready, willing and able" to engage in negotiations under the CUSMA review. pic.twitter.com/0bEqLlIvpr
— Juno News (@junonewscom) April 23, 2026
Canada’s trade negotiator, Janice Charette, told a business audience this week that our trade agreement with the U.S. is “the envy of the world.”
The consensus in Ottawa seems to be that if Canada can emerge from the renegotiation process with much of the current trade deal intact, it will be a win.
But there is a minority view that looks at the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement through the lens of digital sovereignty and prosperity. From that perspective, Canada is not the most privileged of America’s trading partners: rather, it is the most captive.
Down Mexico Way …
Mark Carney’s YouTube video is being praised in the usual circles as sober, statesmanlike realism. It is nothing of the sort. It is the same old Ottawa delusion in a better suit.
Carney says Canada’s close economic ties to the United States (US) have become a weakness that must be corrected. That may sound sophisticated in Toronto and Liberal campaign war rooms, but from Alberta, it sounds ridiculous. Alberta’s relationship with the US is not a policy mistake. It is the basis of our prosperity.
Sad cuz it’s true.
Canada is not a democracy. It’s not even a free nation anymore.
How could it be when Parliament is sidelined for eight months, allowing the executive branch to reign unchecked?
Or when foreign interference is ignored and elections are gamed?
Or when courts rule that the… pic.twitter.com/668Bpkw72S
— Glenn Beck (@glennbeck) April 23, 2026
If you’re confused about where Canada stands heading into negotiations with the U.S. on the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement on trade, it’s likely because Prime Minister Mark Carney keeps moving the goalposts.
Here’s a brief history of how we got to where we are today …
New Democrat MP Leah Gazan probably thought she was communicating only with a small and like-minded group of Canadian NDP supporters when she rolled out a lengthy acronym during a news conference in Ottawa earlier this month.
In fact, she had wandered into the wood chipper of U.S. culture war politics.
Her use of the phrase “MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+” — which many Canadians would probably also struggle to decipher — became fodder for hilarity on Fox News and was mocked across the MAGAsphere. Everyone from Elon Musk to Ted Cruz chimed in with their thoughts on the matter.
The headline from the CBC made it sound like the Trump administration was engaged in a street-level shakedown of their closest ally and neighbour.
“Washington demanding ‘entry fee’ from Ottawa before trade talks: sources,” CBC’s headline read.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says there is a gap between the Canada and U.S. administrations’ trade philosophies.
Greer made the comments at a U.S. House Ways and Means Committee hearing on U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade agenda on Wednesday.
“They’ve done this, but overall they’ve indicated that they want to be trading more, they want to have more trade agreements with more countries,” Greer said, when asked whether Canada is taking the same steps as Mexico to better align with U.S. trade policy, specifically when it comes to rules of origin.
OTTAWA – Despite accusing the United States of weaponizing the deep integration of its economy with Canada’s, Dominic LeBlanc says he “absolutely” wants the trilateral trade deal including Mexico to remain intact.
“We’ve become overly dependent on one trading partner who has turned around, as the prime minister has also said, and weaponized that very dependency or integration against us,” the Canada-U.S. trade minister said in an interview on CTV Power Play with Vassy Kapelos on Tuesday.
“To sell a tool to China, impossible. To sell a tool to India, impossible. To sell a tool to Europe, highly unlikely.”
Manufacturers won’t survive without a long-term agreement with the U.S.
Mr. Carney’s pivot to China cannot rescue our industries in crisis. pic.twitter.com/71B7O6CRV4
— Raquel Dancho (@RaquelDancho) April 21, 2026
When Mark Carney was the Governor of the Bank of England, he earned the nickname the unreliable boyfriend. He earned the nickname for his habit of giving off mixed signals on interest rates — hot one day and cold the next.
The unreliable boyfriend fits when it comes to Carney and his inability to have a coherent message on Canada’s relationship with the United States.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre launched a pointed attack on the Liberal government’s handling of the Canada-U.S. file Tuesday, saying the results so far have fallen well short of the mark and the prime minister is “losing” the trade war.
Speaking to reporters after Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled his new trade advisory council to help with the U.S. dispute — a body that includes some big-name Conservatives — Poilievre lashed out, saying the Liberals ran on settling the issue at the last election but there has been no discernible progress to this point.
There is something almost too convenient in how quickly Canadians point south when discussing unpredictability in trade. Yes, Donald Trump has long been synonymous with volatility. But focusing solely on Washington risks missing a more uncomfortable truth: Ottawa has become just as difficult to read.
Under Mark Carney, Canada’s posture toward the United States has shifted with surprising speed—less theatrical than Trump’s, but no less consequential. In April 2025, we were promised a renewed economic and security partnership. By the summer, we were told the existing deal was already the best possible outcome. Fast forward to April 2026, and suddenly our reliance on the U.S. is framed as a strategic weakness. All of this, notably, after months without meaningful engagement or negotiation.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Sunday video was a master class in crisis communications. He reminded Canadians of his credentials managing tough times. He described the urgent challenges Canada faces. He explained what he is doing to tackle them. He promised not to “sugarcoat” anything. He appealed to Canadians’ patriotism. And he promised to keep us posted: bookmark this YouTube channel for the next episode.
