“Ukraine – Russia”

This sobering reflection on nuclear warfare on the Policy Tensor Substack has been making the rounds. Strongly urge you to read it. Excerpts:

Whether or not the annexed territories shall be considered Russian territory is not the important question. At this stage in the conflict, the important question is not even whether Russian elites believe that preventing Ukraine from becoming a Western bulwark is a vital Russian interest; although as CIA Director Burns wrote, it is indeed “the reddest of red lines” for Russian elites. Rather, as often happens in military conflict, the stakes have risen dramatically for Russia. Russia’s entire world position is now at stake. For if Russia cannot avoid military humiliation in Ukraine, it will not survive as a great power.

YIKES!!

The Kremlin has welcomed a news report that US intelligence believes a bomb attack that killed a Russian commentator and journalist outside Moscow in August was authorised by Ukrainian government officials.

The report in the New York Times about the car bomb attack on Darya Dugina has not been confirmed and has been denied by Kyiv. The report said “parts” of the Ukrainian government were involved in the 20 August blast outside Moscow and that the US had no prior knowledge, provided no intelligence or other assistance, would have opposed it and “admonished” Ukrainian officials about it afterwards.

After Russia’s chaotic retreats in Kherson – less than a week after Vladimir Putin illegally annexed the Ukrainian province alongside three others – the region’s Moscow-appointed governor, Kirill Stremousov, sought to calm the mood.

Far from a rout, the withdrawal was a tactical “regrouping” to “deliver a retaliatory blow”, Stremousov said on Wednesday.

His comments – among the first public admissions of Russia’s retreats in Kherson – attempted to mask what even many vocal supporters of the war now say: the situation is the most dire the Russian army has found itself in since the start of the invasion seven months ago.

Russian BMP crew surrendered to Ukrainian Forces 🇺🇦 #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #NAFO pic.twitter.com/sEtbZjpluQ

— Ukraine War Now ✙ (@uarealitynow) October 5, 2022

When Russians took over the city of Balakliya, eastern Ukraine, they turned the central police station into a base for brutality.

During the six months it spent under enemy occupation, scores of local residents were locked in overcrowded cells in the basement. Survivors told of being dragged to a torture chamber where they were beaten, electrocuted and forced to endure mock executions.

The interrogations were carried out by officials from Russia’s Federal Security Service, according to documents retrieved after the town’s recapture last month during Ukraine’s stunning counter-offensive.

The old adage that cheaters never win is proving itself true once again.

Washington — Whatever happened to the Russian Army? For that matter, whatever happened to the Russian Air Force or the Russian Navy, whose flagship is now at the bottom of the Black Sea? The answer is nothing. Nothing has happened to the Russian military for 50 years, and President Vladimir Putin should have thought twice before heaving his armed forces into a war.

#Ukraine: Intense footage of Ukrainian troops moving on Humvees under heavy Russian fire somewhere in #Kherson Oblast – and at least one HMMWV can be seen destroyed. pic.twitter.com/7vsogkozIM

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) October 5, 2022

Every suspect has the means, a motive and a desire to keep the truth hidden.

Both the old Nord Stream gas pipeline and its newer, never-opened counterpart, Nord Stream 2, were severely damaged last month, just off the Danish island of Bornholm. The incidents were almost immediately deemed an act of sabotage.

In the old days, someone – an international terrorist group, say – might have ‘claimed responsibility’ for such a daring and effective attack. This time, though, there have been only accusations, counter-accusations and denial. And all have been somehow less fierce and less definitive than might have been expected as a response to an attack on a major piece of international infrastructure.

The US’s decision to send more military aid to Ukraine “increases the danger of a direct military clash” between Russia and the West, Moscow has warned.

Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, said it was an “immediate threat” to Moscow, describing the US as “a participant of the conflict”.

Earlier, the US announced another $625m (£547m) in military aid to Ukraine.

Advanced US weaponry has been credited with helping Ukraine build momentum against occupying Russian forces.

This is “Survival Lily” who usually does camping stuff etc.

A common line of argument between Russian state propaganda and American conspiracy circles is proliferating these days, namely: the war in Ukraine was allegedly fomented by the Americans to destroy Europe.

For example, the American conspiracy website Revolver News easily refers to the geostrategic considerations of a leading expert on the war in Ukraine, Andrew Korybko. Incidentally, Korybko is also a ‘Moscow-based analyst’ financed by Russia’s autocratic government: a mere detail.

In this thesis, which charges Europe with being the victim of an American plot, everything is false. It is a childish and disempowering falsehood — which makes it attractive to unquestioning minds.

A poll by the outspoken billionaire Elon Musk asking Twitter users to weigh in on a plan to end the Ukraine war has sparked a flurry of criticism, including from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The controversial “peace” proposal put forward by the entrepreneur behind Tesla Inc and SpaceX included United Nations-supervised elections in the four Ukrainian regions recently annexed by Russia, and recognising Crimea as Russian territory.

For weeks now, on the uncensored Telegram channels of hard-line nationalists and Russian military bloggers, there’s been a litany of angry criticism of Russia’s military commanders amid a stunning Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region and elsewhere resulting in substantial Russian losses.

Now with the Ukrainians’ weekend victory in Lyman, a Donetsk region city and strategic rail hub southeast of Kharkiv, that criticism is bursting into wider public view, hitting the front pages of some of Russia’s biggest newspapers.

That’s a serious problem for Russia’s military brass — and potentially for the Kremlin.

Ukrainian sniper takes out a Russian infantry from a distance of 550m.#Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/uZV9ZWM4wC

— BlueSauron👁️ (@Blue_Sauron) October 3, 2022