Demography

Smannell and Enham Church of England Primary School looks more like a chapel than a place of learning. On this fine morning, the Victorian-era building is quiet as I stare at its pebble-dashed walls and unobtrusive green fencing. Last year, Hampshire County Council decided that the place should be closed for want of pupils (24 at the last count). Parents were left angry, confused and anxious, says Andy Fitchett, a local Methodist minister, just as he was when his son’s school in Hatherden, a village just 10 minutes’ drive away, closed in 2022.

The holiday season is not over yet, but it is time for some reflection. Those who have been travelling in Western Europe will undoubtedly have noticed how our continent is rapidly changing.

From Bergen, Norway, to Cork, Ireland, from Salzburg, Austria, to Florence, Italy, from Hamburg, Germany, to Perpignan, France, everywhere the number of djellabas, headscarves, even niqabs, has dramatically risen.

The Baby Bust in the United States began in 2008, the year of the financial crisis and the year the Great Recession began. Births and the birthrate have fallen nearly every year since the 2007 peak.

It’s easy, then, to blame the recession, and most commentators do, believing that the Baby Bust is mostly an economic phenomenon. But it’s not mostly economic. It is mostly cultural. And so if we zoom in a bit, we can pinpoint a more precise date when we stopped having babies.

Montreal’s population is on the decline due to lower immigration and the ever-aging population, according to a recent report by the Observatoire Grand Montréal.

Its projections indicate the trend could prevent the city from “experiencing population growth in the coming years.”

This contradicts patterns in other large cities, like Toronto and Vancouver, which are expected to see their populations increase by 2050.

Lucky Montreal!

Canada’s birth rate is now among the lowest in the world, reflecting not only economic strain but a deeper shift in how young people think about family, work and the future. More Canadians are choosing not to have children or to have fewer than they once expected.

This conversation asks whether the decision to have fewer children is a necessary adaptation to an uncertain world or a choice with long-term consequences.