Cuba

Disillusioned with the revolution after 68 years of US sanctions and a shattered economy, one in four Cubans have left in four years. Can the regime, and country, survive the engulfing ‘polycrisis’?

Hatri Echazabal Orta lives in Madrid, Spain. Maykel Fernández is in Charlotte, in the US, while Cristian Cuadra remains in Havana, Cuba – for now. All Cubans, all raised on revolutionary ideals and educated in good state-run schools, they have become disillusioned with the cherished national narrative that Cuba is a country of revolution and resistance. Facing a lack of political openness and poor economic prospects, each of them made the same decision: to leave.

They are not alone. After 68 years of partial sanctions and nearly 64 years of total economic embargo by the US, independent demographic studies suggest that Cuba is going through the world’s fastest population decline and is probably already below 8 million – a 25% drop in just four years, suggesting its population has shrunk by an average of about 820,000 people a year.

There are a number of root causes for this exodus, but most experts agree that the blockade, decades of economic crisis, crumbling public services, political repression and widespread disillusionment with the revolution have merged to become a “polycrisis”.

Cubans are speculating about whether their government will be the next to fall, with crucial Venezuelan oil imports now in jeopardy

Elderly Cubans are digging through garbage for scraps of food in Havana. In the country’s second city, Santiago, crowds have gathered, blaring music by Cuban exiles such as Gloria Estefan and Willy Chirino, who sings “Our day is coming soon.”

The U.S. ouster of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro has jolted this country of fewer than 10 million people, which has long relied on Venezuela for oil imports that have barely kept its tiny economy from collapsing.

It opens a new and perilous chapter for the island’s Communist regime during an economic implosion that already rivals the crisis suffered by Cuba after the collapse of the Soviet Union more than three decades ago.

Ask the island’s rulers and they’ll say the revolutionary dream lives on. But to ordinary Cubans stricken by rocketing food prices, it has never felt further away

The road turns into a dirt track entering the town of San Felipe, home to those who can’t leave. In the main square, the only people around are a woman sitting on a bench in the shade of the ruined church and a group of five men hunkered down in the porch of a once-great mansion, trying to fix a bicycle with a hammer.

“Everywhere is empty,” one of them says. “Cuba is empty.”

Power went out across Cuba on Friday after the failure of its biggest power plant caused the collapse of the national grid.

President Díaz-Canel blamed the United States for waging “economic war” and said there would be “no rest” until the power was restored.

Life on the island of 11 million ground to a halt, with frustrated locals sitting on their doorsteps in Havana, sweltering in 28C (82F) heat, and shops were closed. Tourists milled around aimlessly, although generators kept the lights on at their hotels.