“Canadian Politics”

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has had a difficult couple weeks. His only Nova Scotia-based MP, Chris d’Entremont, crossed the floor to the Liberals on Nov. 4. Alberta MP Matt Jeneroux then announced on Nov. 6 that he’ll be resigning his seat next spring.

Both decisions were obviously unfortunate. No political leader would ever willingly want to go through these types of political headaches. This was especially true when last week’s focus should have been squarely on a federal Liberal budget touting a much-higher-than-expected deficit of $78.3 billion.

What happens when a political leader is both deeply admired and deeply disliked? As Parliament breaks for the week, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and his team may get a brief pause from the daily political grind, but the core of his public image is already well defined. He inspires intense loyalty among his supporters and equally intense opposition from his critics. It’s a divide that’s become impossible to ignore in the past week.

OTTAWA — On budget day, Ottawa’s reporters were sequestered in the traditional lock-up, combing through hundreds of pages, when Politico detonated a perfectly timed scoop: Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont was weighing a jump to Mark Carney’s Liberals. Within hours, he crossed, moving the government to within two seats of a majority — one that would guarantee Carney’s hold on power until 2029 — without Canadians casting a single ballot.

Andy Rooney once said that “numbers are the most certain things we have.” That can absolutely be true, and the one certainty about the numbers of the current Parliament is the baked-in uncertainty given the events of the past week.

Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont says the barging into his office and yelling from Conservative Party leadership “sealed the deal” on his choice to cross the floor of the House of Commons to the Liberals this week.

After d’Entremont’s musings over a possible defection were reported by Politico on Tuesday, the MP says Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer and party whip Chris Warkentin “barged” into his office, pushed open the door — almost knocking down his assistant — and yelled at him about “how much of a snake” he was.

Some dare call it bullshit.

With one MP already gone to the Liberals, another one resigning, and more rumoured to be leaving the Conservative fold, the rapidly shifting political landscape ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s upcoming leadership review would weaken his position in a vote he was once expected to win with more than 80 per cent support, say Conservative MPs and former senior Conservatives.

“Things are crumbling,” said a senior Conservative in a not-for-attribution interview with The Hill Times. “It will be very hard for him to hang on. We’ll see.”

I think this is more media hype than substance.

Chris d’Entremont and Matt Jeneroux have walked out of the Conservative caucus. D’Entremont made the cynical walk over to the Liberals while Jeneroux just quit, only a little more than six months after winning re-election in his Edmonton Riverview riding in the April general election.

OTTAWA—The dramatic defection of a Nova Scotia Conservative MP to the Liberals, and the looming exit of another Tory, capped a week of political intrigue that ended with Mark Carney’s government surviving two big budget challenges and still facing a third, but saw bigger questions swirling around Pierre Poilievre’s grip on his own caucus.

As many as 10 to 15 MPs in Poilievre’s caucus are “very frustrated” with him and his senior leadership team, according to one source with knowledge of internal Conservative caucus dynamics. Another suggested “several” MPs have concerns, but many other Conservatives, and Poilievre’s senior leadership team, are closing ranks to insist Poilievre’s leadership is secure.

This reads like a Star wish dream.

Dumping embattled leader Pierre Poilievre would not necessarily be an electoral panacea for the opposition Conservatives, a new poll suggests.

According to a new Abacus Data survey for the Star, conducted before the defection to the Liberals of one Tory MP and the surprise resignation of another, Poilievre tested better than any other potential leader, including Premier Doug Ford.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government was elected just a few seats shy of a majority, meaning the Liberals will need the co-operation of one of the opposition parties to pass their budget.

The budget is considered a confidence vote, meaning the government will fall if it fails to pass and Canada would be heading for a second election this year.

While the Liberals gained an extra vote on the same day the budget dropped, — via former Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossing the floor — the Liberals are still a couple votes short of a majority in the House.