“Canadian Politics”

Andy Rooney once said that “numbers are the most certain things we have.” That can absolutely be true, and the one certainty about the numbers of the current Parliament is the baked-in uncertainty given the events of the past week.

Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont says the barging into his office and yelling from Conservative Party leadership “sealed the deal” on his choice to cross the floor of the House of Commons to the Liberals this week.

After d’Entremont’s musings over a possible defection were reported by Politico on Tuesday, the MP says Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer and party whip Chris Warkentin “barged” into his office, pushed open the door — almost knocking down his assistant — and yelled at him about “how much of a snake” he was.

Some dare call it bullshit.

With one MP already gone to the Liberals, another one resigning, and more rumoured to be leaving the Conservative fold, the rapidly shifting political landscape ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s upcoming leadership review would weaken his position in a vote he was once expected to win with more than 80 per cent support, say Conservative MPs and former senior Conservatives.

“Things are crumbling,” said a senior Conservative in a not-for-attribution interview with The Hill Times. “It will be very hard for him to hang on. We’ll see.”

I think this is more media hype than substance.

Chris d’Entremont and Matt Jeneroux have walked out of the Conservative caucus. D’Entremont made the cynical walk over to the Liberals while Jeneroux just quit, only a little more than six months after winning re-election in his Edmonton Riverview riding in the April general election.

OTTAWA—The dramatic defection of a Nova Scotia Conservative MP to the Liberals, and the looming exit of another Tory, capped a week of political intrigue that ended with Mark Carney’s government surviving two big budget challenges and still facing a third, but saw bigger questions swirling around Pierre Poilievre’s grip on his own caucus.

As many as 10 to 15 MPs in Poilievre’s caucus are “very frustrated” with him and his senior leadership team, according to one source with knowledge of internal Conservative caucus dynamics. Another suggested “several” MPs have concerns, but many other Conservatives, and Poilievre’s senior leadership team, are closing ranks to insist Poilievre’s leadership is secure.

This reads like a Star wish dream.

Dumping embattled leader Pierre Poilievre would not necessarily be an electoral panacea for the opposition Conservatives, a new poll suggests.

According to a new Abacus Data survey for the Star, conducted before the defection to the Liberals of one Tory MP and the surprise resignation of another, Poilievre tested better than any other potential leader, including Premier Doug Ford.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government was elected just a few seats shy of a majority, meaning the Liberals will need the co-operation of one of the opposition parties to pass their budget.

The budget is considered a confidence vote, meaning the government will fall if it fails to pass and Canada would be heading for a second election this year.

While the Liberals gained an extra vote on the same day the budget dropped, — via former Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossing the floor — the Liberals are still a couple votes short of a majority in the House.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget has accomplished a near-impossible feat in Ottawa.

It has united every opposition party across the political spectrum in an outright rejection.

The Conservatives, the Bloc Québécois, the NDP, and the Greens have all declared they will vote against the fiscal plan, branding it as costly, directionless, and profoundly out of touch with the needs of Canadians.

There’s a spectrum of terms used to describe MPs who cross the floor. But history shows us there’s one word that doesn’t always stick when Canadian politicians shed one party affiliation for another: re-electable.

Jaws dropped in Ottawa following the revelation that longtime Conservative Chris d’Entremont is joining the federal Liberal caucus — with Prime Minister Mark Carney hinting others could follow.

Floor-crossing is a political phenomenon dating back to Confederation. But a dive into the record books shows it has increasingly come at an electoral price.

If Canada’s track record in appeasing terrorists is any indication, no good can come out of the federal government’s recognition of a Palestinian state. The last time Canada’s leaders rewarded terrorism, we almost lost the country.

We’ve never discussed this aspect of our constitutional history. For some odd reason, it doesn’t seem to be a subject anyone wants to broach, let alone debate in the marketplace of ideas. Verboten. Hands off. And I’m wondering whether this lack of discussion led to Prime Minister Carney making an inadequately informed decision.

Prime Minister Mark Carney insists the federal budget was crafted to contain a number of measures championed by MPs from other parties, and that those olive branches will become apparent in the coming days.

With one MP already crossing the floor to join the Liberals, Carney now needs only two more votes, or abstentions, to pass his budget.

The unanswered question is whether any of those measures will convince enough opposition MPs that letting the budget pass is in their interests.

Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont resigned from the Conservative caucus Tuesday — and he’s joining the Liberals.

In a statement disseminated by the Liberal Party, d’Entremont said he decided to leave the Conservatives after “serious consideration and thoughtful conversations with constituents.”

“I came to a clear conclusion: there is a better path forward for our country — and a better path forward for Acadie-Annapolis,” he said.

h/t angry_old_man_2

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said days before the release of the federal budget that he’s willing to work with the Liberals to draft an “affordable” budget that his party could support.

“I’m willing to work all through the night—tonight and tomorrow—to come up with an affordable budget that will make an affordable life for Canadians. But we will not vote to raise grocery prices and increase housing costs as the Liberals have done over the last decade,” Poilievre told reporters during a Nov. 2 press conference in Ottawa.