Alberta

Well, thank G-d that’s over.

Alberta’s meta-referendum on whether to hold a referendum on separation suffered a predictable defeat. Forget actual separation, a clear majority—about three-quarters—of Albertans don’t even want to be asked the question. Now we see what happens next.

Of course, the actual number of Albertans who want to be an independent country is much less than around a quarter. Of those who voted for Option 2, some want full independence, a smaller number want to shift dependence to the United States, and most don’t want either but were happy to whack the smug Laurentians with the only stick at hand. It’s an understandable temptation.

In a province-wide address on Tuesday evening, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith vowed not to hold another referendum on the secession issue, while also urging separatist voters to “believe and hope in Canada again” following Monday’s referendum results.

In her first public remarks since referendum polls closed, the premier again sought to elevate the various deals and major projects her government has signed with Prime Minister Mark Carney in an effort to mend Alberta’s fractured relationship with Ottawa. Her comments came one day after Albertans voted with a decisive three-to-one margin to reject a proposal to hold a second legally-binding vote on whether to leave Confederation.

After what felt like an interminable campaign lasting five months, a quarter of Albertans rejected the status quo by selecting Option 2 on Question 10 in a referendum. Some chose with the intention of sending a message or warning to Ottawa. Others (like me) wanted to truly begin down the path to full provincial independence.

The results of Monday’s Alberta referendum question on separation from Canada won’t be official for more than a week, but all indications are that the separatist movement was handed a sound defeat.

As the earliest numbers showed about 76 per cent in favour of remaining in Confederation, a figure that hasn’t changed much as of 10 a.m. MT, separatist leader Jeffrey Rath expressed optimism about the political movement and re-emphasized the need to take control of the United Conservative Party of Alberta from Premier Danielle Smith, whom he said conspired with “fake news” and the “entire Canadian political establishment” to campaign against independence.

In Canada’s wars — particularly the First and Second World Wars, and Afghanistan — as well as on peacekeeping missions, young Prairie men (and now young Prairie women) volunteer early and in disproportionately large numbers.

Albertans have overwhelmingly rejected moving toward a binding referendum on separation. That is good news for Alberta and for the rest of the country. Alberta benefits from belonging to an integrated Canadian food economy, and Canada benefits enormously from Alberta’s agricultural capacity. Separation would have put those shared advantages on the negotiating table.

All the leaders who have been making their final pitches against Alberta separatism are looking for the same answer to Question 10 in the Alberta referendum — a big No.

Where that unity gets shattered, though, is what they want on the day after the referendum. The closing arguments by Mark Carney, Danielle Smith and Pierre Poilievre show sharply different ideas about what happens after Monday’s voting is over.

A few months ago, I was talking to Michael Wernick, the former clerk of the Privy Council, and we wandered onto the subject of Alberta’s secession vote. Mr. Wernick – now the Jarislowsky Chair in public management at the University of Ottawa – said something that’s been stuck in my brain ever since.

Say the referendum delivers a stout margin for the remain side, as polling has predicted, he said: Then what?

On Monday, Albertans will vote in a province-wide referendum on a series of questions about the province’s future, and the question drawing the most attention is whether to hold a second referendum on separation; Ipsos’ current polling suggests Albertans will reject that possibility, with only 23 per cent saying they will vote to trigger the second vote and 70 per cent saying they will vote to stay part of Canada. But the outcome on nine other themes – immigration, federal programs and greater provincial autonomy – is far less certain.

EDMONTON — Here are the 10 questions Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is sending to a provincewide referendum on Monday.

Question 1: Do you support the government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities?

It does not look good for the separatists, Albertan’s are faced with a revolving door as is Quebec’s independence movement.

The relationship between Alberta and the federal government has faced its share of political and economic conflict over the years. Some Albertans would argue more than its fair share.

From the drawing of the province’s boundaries to natural resource control to the creation of the National Energy Program to pipeline cancellations and political representation, generations of Albertans have expressed feelings of alienation.