“Ukraine – Russia”

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian-controlled regions of eastern and southern Ukraine announced plans Tuesday to start voting this week to become integral parts of Russia. The concerted and quickening Kremlin-backed efforts to swallow up four regions could set the stage for Moscow to escalate the war following Ukrainian successes on the battlefield.

The scheduling of referendums starting Friday in the Luhansk, Kherson and partly Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions came after a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin said the votes are needed and as Moscow is losing ground in the invasion it began nearly seven months ago, increasing pressure on the Kremlin for a stiff response.

By all accounts except the Kremlin’s, Russia is struggling with military manpower shortages as its invasion of Ukraine continues in its seventh month. Western estimates say Russia may have suffered 25,000 combat fatalities and as many as 80,000 total casualties so far in fighting that has achieved none of the Kremlin’s stated objectives.

Moscow, though, has shied away from declaring war and mobilizing its full military reserves, most likely out of fear of the domestic political consequences that could arise from sending men from urban areas or the professional classes into combat. Instead, Russia has relied largely on contract soldiers recruited from remote and impoverished regions.

#Ukraine: The Ukrainian 128th Mountain Assault Brigade destroyed a Russian BMP IFV with artillery fire in #Kherson Oblast. pic.twitter.com/DwArkmnBhW

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 19, 2022

Ukrainian soldiers have broken through Russia’s frontline along the Oskil River, exposing an important supply route and swathes of territory that the Kremlin has promised to defend.

Fighting has focused on Kupiansk since Russian forces fled a surprise Ukrainian offensive around Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine last week but now military bloggers from both sides have said that Russia’s defence has crumbled once again.

“Kupiansk has surrendered. The enemy is on the left bank of the Oskil,” the pro-Russian military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky told his 450,000 subscribers last night.

#Ukraine: A Russian BMP-1P IFV was taken out by Ukrainian SSO (SOF) using drone-dropped munitions in #Zaporizhzhia Oblast. pic.twitter.com/uI6Q4Eoocg

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 18, 2022

The war has become impossible to ignore in Belgorod, southern Russia, just miles from the border with Ukraine. Russian soldiers retreating from the Ukrainian counterattack now roam the streets. Air defences boom out overhead several times a day. The city is once again filled with refugees. And, at the border, Russian and Ukrainian soldiers stand within sight of each other.

Three Russian soldiers from Ossetia are wandering the unfamiliar streets past the grand Transfiguration Cathedral late one evening. They seem unsteady on their feet, perhaps drunk or tired. And they’re looking for a place to eat.

#Ukraine: If you go for a walk in the woods in #Kharkiv– you might discover no less than four BTR-80 APC and a UR-77 mine clearing vehicle. pic.twitter.com/DGM4AphsLQ

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 18, 2022

A single tweet in May launched an online movement that has become the kryptonite of the pro-Russian trolls that have long ruled corners of the internet.

“For many years, Russia has been waging a serious information war globally,” said Ivana Stradner, a NAFO member, advisor to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and writer for the Kyiv Post newspaper.

At the start of the Ukraine war in February, the West had done little to counter Russia’s fake news with “offensive information operations,” she added.

Viewed purely in terms of the size of their formations and equipment, Russian ground forces in Ukraine still pose a serious threat on a number of axes. In practice, however, it is highly unlikely the Russian military can recover from its increasingly terminal trajectory on the battlefield, though its defeat will take time and bitter fighting. To understand why, it is necessary to examine the force beyond its equipment and personnel.

The US assesses military capability through the abbreviation DOTMLPF. That senior US officers regularly try to roll this off the tongue as an acronym may exemplify military absurdity, but the abbreviation is somewhat redeemed by being fairly comprehensive. It stands for: doctrine, organisation, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel and facilities. Looking at the Russian military across these categories reveals why it is underperforming its potential and struggling to regenerate.

Corruption, poor morale in a conscript army that either doesn’t know or believe why or for what it’s fighting, antiquated and or poorly designed equipment.

That’s a lot of crap to surmount.

Will the Russians be able to recover as they did in WW II? The Finns walloped them early but then succumbed to sheer weight of numbers.

They eventually defeated the Germans with a horrific sacrifice of men and machines but they cannot rely on vast reserves of manpower or lend lease to bail them out as in WW II.

Standing in the gloom, Maksim Maksimov pointed to the spot where he was tortured with electric shocks. Russian soldiers took him from his cell in the basement of Izium’s police station. They sat him on an office chair and attached a zig-zag crocodile clip to his finger. It was connected by cable to an old-fashioned Soviet military field telephone.

And then it began. A soldier cranked the handle, turning it faster and faster. This sent an excruciating pulse through Maksimov’s body. “I collapsed. They pulled me upright. There was a hood on my head. I couldn’t see anything. My legs went numb. I was unable to hear in my left ear,” he recalled. “Then they did it again. I passed out. I came round 40 minutes later back in my cell.”

Spring of 2022 was a challenging period for Ukraine, particularly for those territories that were invaded by the Russian army. It was a time of uncertainty. Striking from Belarus, the invading forces came dangerously close to the capital. They moved more slowly than anticipated, meeting heavy resistance every step of the way. Still, they were greater in number, and the Ukrainian military was not as prepared as it should have been, given the threat dating back to 2014. Russian casualties did not stop their convoys from moving south. One by one, small towns and villages were occupied. Kyiv, however, proved to be a much tougher target; Russians were stopped a few kilometres away from the city’s outskirts.

“You have no idea how tired I am to say hello to someone in the morning and then have to identify his remains later the same day,” one Russian officer serving as a marine in Ukraine reportedly confided over the phone to a former colleague back home, who published it on his Telegram channel.

“Just yesterday two of my sniper groups were destroyed by a tank. Three men died instantly, the fourth one fought for his life for an hour and a half, another one in critical condition was taken to hospital. We have hardly any men left and we are holding a front line dozens of kilometres long.”

#Ukraine: More ammo captures from #Kharkiv Oblast – 30 uncommon 9M119 Refleks 125mm laser-guided tank-fired anti-tank missiles along with charges were left by the Russian army and fell into the hands of the Ukrainian forces. pic.twitter.com/T9aI8ffRB9

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 16, 2022

LONDON — They come to the U.K. in their thousands — Ukrainians from every walk of life, in urgent need of military training to protect their homeland.

From lawyers to bricklayers, they are flown in from across Ukraine. The aim is to turn the new recruits into soldiers in just five weeks, providing basic military skills — infantry tactics; weapons handling; patroling; first aid; evacuation — before they return to fight on the frontline.

Since June, the U.K. has trained nearly 5,000 Ukrainian early recruits under Operation Interflex, a program that aims to support 10,000 new soldiers within a year across a network of British training camps. Interflex is the successor to a longer-running British program, Operation Orbital, which trained up more than 22,000 Ukrainians between 2015 — shortly after Russia’s initial occupation of Crimea — and May of this year.

#Ukraine: A Ukrainian BRM-1K was destroyed with an admittedly precise drone-dropped F-1 grenade in #Kherson Oblast. pic.twitter.com/OV8zjoLbdM

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) September 15, 2022