“Ukraine – Russia”

Friends, rivals and enemies took their seats in the Grand Kremlin Palace as Vladimir Putin gathered the country’s elite to formalise Russia’s illegal annexation of four occupied regions in Ukraine.

The ceremony was meant to portray strength and unity, but within 24 hours had been overshadowed by Russia’s failures on the battlefield. These losses, which continued into this week on the southern and eastern fronts in Ukraine, have led to a major, unprecedented rupture within the ruling class as the Kremlin seeks scapegoats for a series of military embarrassments.

A huge blast on Russia’s bridge to Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula it annexed in 2014, has killed three people, investigators say.

The victims were in a nearby car when a lorry blew up, the Russian investigators said, bringing down sections of the bridge’s roadway.

Russia says the railway part of the bridge – where oil tankers caught fire – will reopen on Saturday.

They also claim road traffic will begin on an undamaged lane this evening.

Explosion on the bridge between Crimea and Russia, Kiev wishes "happy birthday" to Putin. Biden, Ursula von der Leyen and Zelensky will lead the world to nuclear war. pic.twitter.com/amKEvrT6qj

— RadioGenova (@RadioGenova) October 8, 2022

Self-driving vehicles will be a boon to terrorists.

When President Vladimir Putin yelled, “We will win!” at a Red Square concert to celebrate his illegal annexation of Ukrainian lands on Friday, he projected the hubris of a man who cannot accept defeat.

Putin has said Russia will not lose in Ukraine. But multiple battlefield defeats and national fury over a botched military mobilization have broken a taboo in Moscow on discussions about what would happen if Putin did lose — not just the war, but his seeming bid to be leader-for-life, according to four members of Russia’s business elite. Kremlin-watchers, in and out of the capital, are asking: Who might come next?

#Ukraine: The aftermath of Russian artillery shelling on a group of Ukrainian vehicles in #Kherson Oblast – a Kozak-2 armored vehicle, VAB APC 🇫🇷 and what appears to be KrAZ Cobra were destroyed. pic.twitter.com/f8k2juxxQn

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) October 7, 2022

On the banks of the Oskil river, it is clear to Ukraine’s poised troops that the enemy is short of ammunition and struggling to respond

There is a strange ritual to artillery fire.

The most important is the camouflage. When properly wrapped up in foliage, the muzzles of their howitzers look like fungi. Then there are the messages to be written on shells. On Thursday, it was “for Zaporizhia”, where Russian missiles had wreaked carnage in the morning.

A battery commander scribbles calculations on a pad of paper and barks the customary countdown to fire: “Three hundred – thirty – three!”

🇺🇦 'On the banks of the Oskil river, it is clear to Ukraine's poised troops that the enemy is short of ammunition and struggling to respond'@RolandOliphant and Julian Simmonds report from the Kharkiv region ⬇️https://t.co/52mQaoG2qj pic.twitter.com/fcCdZINWlj

— Telegraph World News (@TelegraphWorld) October 7, 2022

US President Joe Biden has warned that the risk of a nuclear “Armageddon” is at its highest level for 60 years.

Mr Biden said that Russian President Vladimir Putin was “not joking” when he warned that Moscow would use “all means we have” to defend Russian territory. Mr Putin has also said that the US created a “precedent” by using nuclear weapons in World War Two.

But analysts suggest Mr Putin’s words should probably be interpreted as a warning to other countries not to escalate their involvement in Ukraine, rather than signalling any desire to use nuclear weapons.

Following the discovery of leaks from two Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, the Swedish Security Service said Thursday that the results of a preliminary probe have “strengthened the suspicions of serious sabotage.”

A prosecutor said the suspicion of foul play was heightened after evidence from the site had been gathered.

Sweden’s domestic security agency said the ongoing investigation confirmed that “detonations” caused extensive damage last week to the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, off the coasts of Sweden and Denmark.

I was taken aback when Putin invaded as I thought he was winning simply by bluffing.  How will he react given the humiliation Russia now faces?

Will he escalate to nuclear war? I can see Freeland and Junior justifying Canada’s participation in their minds as an “Eco-War.” Imagine the draconian restrictions they and the WEF will dream up for us.

KHARKIV, Ukraine — Tamara Halishnikova doesn’t remember how long the attack targeting her and other residents trying to escape the Russian-occupied village of Kurylivka lasted.

All she remembers are the sounds that rang out as the column of vehicles made its way along a railway embankment that late-September morning.

“There was an explosion, then automatic-weapons fire, then more explosions, then we went to the embankment, then gunfire, gunfire, gunfire,” she said, speaking at a press conference to RFE/RL at a hospital in Kharkiv less than two weeks later.

#Ukraine: Ukrainian force destroyed a Russian T-72B3 tank somewhere on the front- possibly with a precision artillery strike. pic.twitter.com/U32cHfxMed

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) October 6, 2022

This sobering reflection on nuclear warfare on the Policy Tensor Substack has been making the rounds. Strongly urge you to read it. Excerpts:

Whether or not the annexed territories shall be considered Russian territory is not the important question. At this stage in the conflict, the important question is not even whether Russian elites believe that preventing Ukraine from becoming a Western bulwark is a vital Russian interest; although as CIA Director Burns wrote, it is indeed “the reddest of red lines” for Russian elites. Rather, as often happens in military conflict, the stakes have risen dramatically for Russia. Russia’s entire world position is now at stake. For if Russia cannot avoid military humiliation in Ukraine, it will not survive as a great power.

YIKES!!

The Kremlin has welcomed a news report that US intelligence believes a bomb attack that killed a Russian commentator and journalist outside Moscow in August was authorised by Ukrainian government officials.

The report in the New York Times about the car bomb attack on Darya Dugina has not been confirmed and has been denied by Kyiv. The report said “parts” of the Ukrainian government were involved in the 20 August blast outside Moscow and that the US had no prior knowledge, provided no intelligence or other assistance, would have opposed it and “admonished” Ukrainian officials about it afterwards.

After Russia’s chaotic retreats in Kherson – less than a week after Vladimir Putin illegally annexed the Ukrainian province alongside three others – the region’s Moscow-appointed governor, Kirill Stremousov, sought to calm the mood.

Far from a rout, the withdrawal was a tactical “regrouping” to “deliver a retaliatory blow”, Stremousov said on Wednesday.

His comments – among the first public admissions of Russia’s retreats in Kherson – attempted to mask what even many vocal supporters of the war now say: the situation is the most dire the Russian army has found itself in since the start of the invasion seven months ago.

Russian BMP crew surrendered to Ukrainian Forces 🇺🇦 #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy #NAFO pic.twitter.com/sEtbZjpluQ

— Ukraine War Now ✙ (@uarealitynow) October 5, 2022

When Russians took over the city of Balakliya, eastern Ukraine, they turned the central police station into a base for brutality.

During the six months it spent under enemy occupation, scores of local residents were locked in overcrowded cells in the basement. Survivors told of being dragged to a torture chamber where they were beaten, electrocuted and forced to endure mock executions.

The interrogations were carried out by officials from Russia’s Federal Security Service, according to documents retrieved after the town’s recapture last month during Ukraine’s stunning counter-offensive.