Conservative Party

MONTREAL — Justin Trudeau’s government has been on the defensive in the House of Commons for months. By now, fewer than one in three Canadians approves its handling of the China electoral interference file, a topic that has monopolized the federal political conversation throughout the first half of the year.

To listen to the furor in the House of Commons, where the opposition again this week lined up against the Liberals to demand a public inquiry on the issue, one gets the impression of an embattled government on the verge of free fall. The voting intentions picture suggests otherwise.

Pierre Poilievre is about to face his greatest test. How he performs could determine not just his future but, just possibly, the country’s.

His first time up at the plate — in a Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection late last year—many concluded Poilievre struck out. That’s one way to see it. But I look at it differently: Poilievre refused to swing the bat—fully aware his efforts would be futile in a Liberal stronghold.

But for the upcoming by-elections in June, that approach just won’t cut it. Indeed, to show he’s not just a capable rhetorician, but an electoral strategist who can succeed where federal Conservatives have recently fallen short, Poilievre must swing for the fences. Question is: is the count in his favour?

Does Pierre Poilievre even believe some of the things he’s saying these days? Does he expect the rest of us to believe them, or do they come pre-discounted with a sort of wink-wink don’t-take-this-seriously message already built in?

The question arises in the wake of the Conservative leader’s sorties this week into a couple of serious policy areas — bail reform and drug policy.

While future platforms and local candidates will play a role in the next federal election, anyone who thinks large portions of the electorate cast their vote based on little more than vibes is kidding themselves. Often, vibes decide elections — in particular, the vibes of party leaders.

MONTREAL—Since Pierre Poilievre secured a first-ballot leadership victory last fall, peace has broken out on the Conservative caucus front.

Those of his MPs who harbour doubts about their latest leader’s bare-knuckled approach to politics have so far been discreet.

Some of them want to protect their chances to be appointed to a future Conservative cabinet. Others are planning to go quietly into the night once their current term in Parliament is up.

A hint of a triumphal smirk crept across Justin Trudeau’s face as he launched a partisan salvo at his fiercest rival.

“Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada — no relation to the Progressive Conservatives of Ontario, sorry, that was a joke, you can chuckle — came out and said that this project was a waste of money,” Trudeau said April 21 as he touted massive federal and provincial subsidies for the Volkswagen “gigafactory” near London, Ont.