Vladimir Putin is about to make shock gains

With Russia back on the offensive after significant Ukrainian combat successes around Kharkiv and Kherson in the second half of 2022, the past few weeks have been the bloodiest so far of an already bloody war, with both sides taking extraordinarily heavy casualties. Expect it to get worse.

Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov says Russia has mobilised “much more” than 300,000 troops, perhaps up to half a million, and these are pouring into Ukraine in preparation for what is expected to be a major offensive in the coming days and weeks. Although Kyiv has also been building up its forces and supplying them with modern equipment donated by the West, Putin has a much greater advantage in troop numbers than he did when he invaded a year ago. Despite repeated optimistic reports of Russia running low on artillery shells – a battle winner in this conflict – Putin’s war stocks are vast, and his factories have been working around the clock to churn out even more.

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The madness behind the battle for Bakhmut

Russian troops are dying in their thousands here

“The objective for today is to come back alive.” Yevgeny is a young commando from the “Mad Pack”, a special forces unit that has been fighting in Bakhmut since November. His words are familiar — lacquered with that mix of emotions common to almost all soldiers fighting on the frontlines of war: laughter and unease. We clamber into a Land Cruiser and head toward the city. “The situation is always changing,” he continues. “But one thing remains the same: the line of contact is always active.”

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Ukraine releases video appearing to show Russian troops beating own wounded officer

Ukraine has released extraordinary video footage that appears to show Russian fighters dragging their badly wounded commander away from the battlefield, and then beating him violently with what appear to be shovels.

A Ukrainian drone captured the incident near the eastern city of Bakhmut, where intense fighting has been raging for months. Four soldiers from Russia’s Wagner mercenary group carry their colleague through a landscape of ruined houses, holding his arms and legs.

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Pro-war ‘ultra-patriots’ may overthrow President Putin

A prominent Russian MP has claimed there is a growing danger that “ultra-patriots” might attempt to overthrow President Putin because of discontent over the army’s failures in Ukraine.

Oleg Matveychev, a member of the pro-government United Russia party who has also worked as a spin doctor, said that ardent supporters of the war in Ukraine posed the greatest threat to Putin’s rule.

“The situation is not so critical yet, but 2023 will be very dangerous,” Matveychev said in an online video interview.

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Russia and Ukraine named as Europe’s most corrupt countries

Tuesday marked a favourite date in the calendars of think tankers and political scientists everywhere: the release of Transparency International’s annual “Corruption Perceptions” index. The index throws up interesting results every year, but the ranking for 2022 takes on particular significance amid heated debate over Ukraine’s EU aspirations.  

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How the Ukraine war is fuelling massive profits for energy firms and arms dealers

All wars spawn profiteers, and the Ukraine conflict is no exception. Oil companies, arms manufacturers and fertiliser and food producers have all seen their profits rise sharply. Black marketeers and sanctions busters have cleaned up. Whole countries, such as Iran and Turkey, have exploited the war to bolster their standing.

The vast rise in global energy prices has produced record profits for producers sourcing energy from outside Russia. Shell has just posted its highest ever yearly gain, making a profit of almost $40 billion last year. Even after the windfall tax imposed in Britain, those supplying gas and oil are raking in far more money than anything earned before.

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How much does Wagner pay? Mercenary group’s convict recruitment down -UK

The Russia-affiliated Wagner private military company continues to recruit fighters by more traditional means as the UK Defense Ministry said that its convict recruitment program operated at a reduced scale in late 2022 on Friday.

According to a Monday posting in the Wagner-tied Grey Zone Telegram group, the PMC was offering contracts for 240,000 rubles with “good bonuses for performance.”

Other benefits included health and life insurance and would provide equipment for recruits that needed.

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Ukraine Says West’s Reluctance On Jets ‘Will Cost Us More Lives’

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov has said the reluctance of Kyiv’s Western allies to send jet fighters to aid in the battle against Russian forces will “cost us more lives,” even as he repeated warnings that Moscow is poised to launch a major new offensive in the nearly yearlong war.

“I am sure that we will win this war. I am sure we will liberate all the occupied territories,” Reznikov told a Kyiv news conference on February 5. But without Western supplies of jet fighters, “it will cost us more lives.”

Western leaders have said it is not practical to send such jets to Ukraine given the amount of time it would take to train pilots and maintenance crews and amid fears of widening the conflict.

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It’s beginning to look like the establishment will throw Zelensky under the bus to save face

Recent reports from major U.S. outlets have presented a startling departure from the customary narrative surrounding the war in Ukraine.

It is becoming clear that the only war the U.S. has been winning has been the information war surrounding the conflict. With the report from the RAND Corporation last month, who have been advising the Pentagon since 1948, comes the news that the ground war is lost and that no return of Ukrainian lands is likely.

The report, titled “Avoiding a Long War,” glosses over the complicated history of Ukraine and makes no mention of the many interventions and diplomatic failures directed by the US and its NATO allies, which I detailed in a long four part series here.

Instead, it focuses on the need to avoid a protracted conflict – chiefly to free up the U.S. military to concentrate on the next big war with China.

We’ll see. The war on corruption likely indicates Z was read the riot act.

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No Evidence Russian Involved in Nord Stream Blasts So Far: Germany

No evidence that Moscow was involved in the suspected sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea has been found so far, a German investigator has admitted.

An investigation being conducted by Germany’s Public Prosecutor General, Peter Frank, has come up with zero evidence that Russia was involved in the explosions that rendered both Nord Stream pipelines inactive.

This looks more and more like a Corporate war.

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When It Comes to Building Its Own Defense, Europe Has Blinked

BRUSSELS — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the greatest challenge to European security since the end of the Cold War, but the Europeans have missed the opportunity to step up their own defense, diplomats and experts say. Instead, the war has reinforced Europe’s military dependence on the United States.

Washington, they note, has led the response to the war, marshaled allies, organized military aid to Ukraine and contributed by far the largest amount of military equipment and intelligence to Ukraine. It has decided at each step what kind of weapons Kyiv will receive and what it will not.

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Ukraine war: US to provide long-range missiles in latest aid package

The US says additional military aid to Ukraine worth $2.2bn (£1.83bn) will include long-range missiles capable of doubling its attack range.

It brings the total amount of military aid given to Ukraine to more than $29.3bn (£24.31bn) since February 2022.

The package includes ground-launched small-diameter bombs (GLSDB) which can hit targets 150km (93 miles) away.

But officials refused to be drawn on speculation that the munitions could be used to attack parts of annexed Crimea.

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The Ukraine repair shop: where Russian tanks go to change sides

The first task is to wipe off or cover up the Z, says Anatoly, 44, of the call sign infamously daubed on Russian hardware involved in the war in Ukraine. “We don’t want friendly fire later on.” Then the mechanics get to work.

In a secret location in Ukraine, within a vast warehouse that could be mistaken for a tank graveyard, what was once Russian – Soviet, in many cases – is being turned Ukrainian.

All the headlines have recently been made by the decision of Germany and a host of others to supply Ukraine with western heavy armour: Leopard 2s, Challengers and Abrams.

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