OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s description of possible U.S. military action against Canada as an “extreme tail risk” raises a question Canadians deserve to have answered clearly: what does preparing for such a contingency actually tell us about the danger?
Carney said the scenario was “not a base case,” but that it would be irresponsible not to prepare. Canadians should understand that distinction: a government can examine a highly unlikely event because its consequences would be catastrophic. The existence of a contingency assessment does not, by itself, establish that an attack is expected.
