Western Canada sits on extraordinary economic potential that remains artificially constrained by federal policies designed to redistribute wealth eastward. Recent polling suggests Saskatchewan has overtaken Alberta in its appetite for independence — a shift that highlights growing frustration with a system that penalizes success. The economic fundamentals show that Alberta and Saskatchewan together would create one of the world’s most economically self-sufficient nations.
A petition asking Albertans if they want to remain a part of Canada has been approved by Elections Alberta. A competing petition calling for Alberta’s separation has been referred to the courts by Elections Alberta to determine whether it is constitutional before it can proceed.
Alberta’s chief electoral officer, Gordon McClure, approved the petition against Alberta’s separation by group Alberta Forever Canada on July 30, saying as per legislation, it now needed to garner signatures from 10 percent of eligible voters, or 293,976 signatures, to qualify as a referendum.
Whatever one thinks of Alberta’s separation movement, the referendum question it seeks to pose to Albertans is a vast improvement over those confronting voters in the 1995 and 1980 Quebec referenda on separation.
HUNTSVILLE, Ontario — Many Canadians are furious with President Donald Trump, aghast at his trade war and his calls to annex their country. Then there’s Danielle Smith, premier of Alberta. “We have a longstanding relationship with the Americans that goes back over 100 years, and it’s going to last 100 years or more,” she says in an interview with POLITICO Magazine.
Smith’s approach may be distinct in part because she’s a Conservative who meets regularly with Trump administration officials. Her oil-and-gas-rich Alberta also has a large trading relationship with the United States that is largely tariff-free.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has rejected the notion of Alberta independence, and instead suggests forming alliances with other provinces to overhaul Ottawa’s oppressive system.
He acknowledged Alberta has been “under relentless attack” for decades, with the province paying more than it receives into Ottawa’s equalization fund, and enduring federal anti-oil and anti-gun laws.
Dear Canada,
It grieves us — though not unduly — to write what must now be said: this relationship, such as it ever was, is over. Done. Toast. You may keep the Laurentian furniture; we’ll be taking the pickup, the pipeline plans, and whatever’s left of our dignity.
And before you interrupt with the old chestnut about “working through our differences,” let’s be frank for once: it’s not us, it’s definitely you.
The wheels are in motion, and the independence‑referendum train has already left the station. Decades of neglect and abuse of Western interests have created unprecedented frustration. From where I sit, Central Canada will never treat the Western provinces as full partners in the federation.
A few days ago, I had a discussion with a widely respected western businessman, and good friend, about the current independence movement in Alberta and Saskatchewan. I was intrigued by his thoughts about how we might advance the goal of greater western autonomy at this time in our history.
We agreed that, despite the gallant efforts of many, for far too many years, the flame for fairness has been repeatedly ignored and snuffed out, again and again. The harsh reality is, if an insufficient number of westerners don’t take the issue of independence seriously, why should eastern Canadians?
As Canada prepares Tuesday to blow out 158 birthday candles, Alberta plans three days later to formalize rules making it easier to have an independence celebration of its own.
Beginning Friday, Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative government is officially lowering the required threshold for citizens to initiate a provincewide referendum, including on separation.
PPC leader Maxime Bernier, hot on the heels of a successful leadership review, hopes Albertans will vote in favour of independence — not to break up Canada, but so that serious concessions will be made by Ottawa.
Bernier won the leadership review with 79.1% of the vote, a drop in approval since his 2021 review, where he garnered a staggering 95.6% approval rate. Notably, voter turnout was significantly lower this time — 32.7% compared to a 57% voter participation rate four years ago.
In light of the poor showing by separatist candidates in recent Alberta byelections, pundits and politicians will be tempted to again dismiss threats of western separatism as over-hyped, and too tiny to be taken seriously, just as they did before and after the April 28 federal election.
Much of the initial skepticism came after former Leader of the Opposition Preston Manning authored a column arguing that some in central Canada never see western populism coming. He cited separatist sympathies as the newest example.
The Western separatist movement is reaching levels of support seen during the initial surge of Quebec’s independence movement in the 1980s, says a new study from the Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy.
The report, released on June 26, noted that while support for Western separatism is still not as high as Quebec at the peak of its sovereignty movement, support for western provinces leaving Canada continues to grow.
The arithmetic rolls out. The devil is in the details. The fine print is where you get the meat and potatoes.
The latest from ThinkHQ polling.
The question. If a provincial referendum was held tomorrow asking Albertans if they would like to remain in Canada or become an independent country, how would you most likely vote?
The top number is just the appetizer.
Some of the responses to my most recent column were interpreted as support for independence, and indeed that is the position of the Western Standard. But my view is more than wordsmithing — independence, if necessary, but not necessarily independence.
A referendum is certainly in our future, and current support will surprise many in Central Canada. My view is that the breakup of Canada would be a colossal failure of all parties and entirely unnecessary. But sadly, it appears inevitable.
In any discussion of Western independence, the inclusion of Saskatchewan is imperative. Over a range of issues regarding independence, it polls almost identically to Alberta. Further, not only does it add half of Canada’s current conventional oil production, world-leading reserves and production of potash and uranium, more than half of Canada’s arable land and an array of minerals, but Saskatchewan also prevents detractors from isolating Alberta.
