“Western Alienation Separation”

A few days ago, I had a discussion with a widely respected western businessman, and good friend, about the current independence movement in Alberta and Saskatchewan. I was intrigued by his thoughts about how we might advance the goal of greater western autonomy at this time in our history.

We agreed that, despite the gallant efforts of many, for far too many years, the flame for fairness has been repeatedly ignored and snuffed out, again and again. The harsh reality is, if an insufficient number of westerners don’t take the issue of independence seriously, why should eastern Canadians?

As Canada prepares Tuesday to blow out 158 birthday candles, Alberta plans three days later to formalize rules making it easier to have an independence celebration of its own.

Beginning Friday, Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservative government is officially lowering the required threshold for citizens to initiate a provincewide referendum, including on separation.

In light of the poor showing by separatist candidates in recent Alberta byelections, pundits and politicians will be tempted to again dismiss threats of western separatism as over-hyped, and too tiny to be taken seriously, just as they did before and after the April 28 federal election.

Much of the initial skepticism came after former Leader of the Opposition Preston Manning authored a column arguing that some in central Canada never see western populism coming. He cited separatist sympathies as the newest example.

The arithmetic rolls out. The devil is in the details. The fine print is where you get the meat and potatoes.

The latest from ThinkHQ polling.

The question. If a provincial referendum was held tomorrow asking Albertans if they would like to remain in Canada or become an independent country, how would you most likely vote?

The top number is just the appetizer.

Some of the responses to my most recent column were interpreted as support for independence, and indeed that is the position of the Western Standard. But my view is more than wordsmithing — independence, if necessary, but not necessarily independence.

A referendum is certainly in our future, and current support will surprise many in Central Canada. My view is that the breakup of Canada would be a colossal failure of all parties and entirely unnecessary. But sadly, it appears inevitable.

In any discussion of Western independence, the inclusion of Saskatchewan is imperative. Over a range of issues regarding independence, it polls almost identically to Alberta. Further, not only does it add half of Canada’s current conventional oil production, world-leading reserves and production of potash and uranium, more than half of Canada’s arable land and an array of minerals, but Saskatchewan also prevents detractors from isolating Alberta.

Westerners saw it coming but Canada was shocked when support for provincial independence exploded, after Eastern Canada chose to reward the Liberals with a larger government in the general election.

At first, federalists dismissed the provincial sovereignty movement as a fringe minority of loud cranks. They were confident it was little more than a collection of vocal malcontents on social media and there was little of substance to the movement.

By any measure of common sense — and I emphasize common, not the boutique intellectualism of think tanks or the jargon-fed corridors of Ottawa — Alberta stands today at the most consequential fork in its history.

One road loops endlessly through subservience and stasis; the other leads toward dignity, prosperity, and self-determination. The real question echoing across the Prairies is not “Why would Alberta leave?” but “Why on earth would it stay?”