“Ukraine – Russia”

The stench of the front had followed the wounded into the ward, so that the bandaged men reeked of a mixture of sweat, tobacco, soil, dried blood and disinfectant. A few still smelled of cordite. There were no loud voices, no laughter, no careless boasts of courage, no slogans of glory here.

Fresh from the horrors of Bakhmut, their limbs penetrated and shattered by flying metal, the soldiers spoke to one another softly, if at all, as they waited to have their wounds dressed before being evacuated westwards. Some were silent, staring into space as they reflected on what had brought them here.

Fear is mightier than the sword, and few things stoke fear like a dirty bomb. So, it should have come as no surprise when Russia accused Ukraine of building a radiological dispersal device (RDD), possibly setting the stage for a false-flag attack. By manipulating widespread fear of radioactivity, such a device is a potent weapon of terror, and Russia has transformed it into an instrument of “war by other means.” To manage this, relevant chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) doctrine must also shift to emphasize public information and crisis recovery.

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nears its one-year anniversary on Feb. 24, many Americans’ patience is wearing thin. A new poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that American support for shipping weapons and tax dollars off to Ukraine is declining.

Less than half of Americans, 48 percent, now say they favor the U.S. providing weapons to Ukraine, with 29 percent opposed and 22 percent neither in favor nor opposed. This is a decline from May 2022, when less than three months into the conflict 60 percent of U.S. adults were in favor of sending weapons to Ukraine.

President Putin has sacrificed thousands of tanks and tens of thousands of men in an effort to grind Ukraine into submission. Yet so far he has appeared reluctant to use planes and helicopters to win the battle for the skies.

Barrages of cruise and ballistic missiles have been the main way Putin has sought to press the Russian aerial advantage, while holding his expensive aircraft in reserve. A Russian SU-35 fighter typically costs about £35 million.

The SU-25 Soviet era ground attack fighter-bomber pictured has not fared especially well to date with numerous reports of shoot-downs.

Russia’s army is estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its prewar fleet of tanks after nine months of fighting in Ukraine, according to a count by the specialist thinktank the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS).

That rises to as much as 50% for some of the key tanks used in combat, forcing Russia to reach into its still sizeable cold war-era stocks. Ukraine’s tank numbers are estimated to have increased because of the number it has captured and supplies of Soviet-era tanks from its western allies.

John Chipman, the thinktank’s chair, said the war had been “a political and military failure for Russia” highlighting shortcomings in leadership and deficiencies in its munitions, despite Kremlin modernisation efforts.

#Ukraine: A Ukrainian BMK-460 tugboat was struck and taken out of action by a Russian Lancet loitering munition. pic.twitter.com/YKwRNYnI6c

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) February 15, 2023

Western analysts are spreading a false narrative

If you were a Russian mother, would you rather believe that your son gave his life heroically fighting Ukrainian Nazis, or that he died butchering innocent civilians? The former, most likely. It is not easy to admit — to oneself or to others — that you live in a country that has murdered tens of thousands of Ukrainians, or that has pointlessly sacrificed the lives of its own people.

Yet it is one thing to turn a blind eye to the truth, and quite another to be “brainwashed”. The West is fixated on the idea that “Putin’s war” is not Russia’s, and that the Russian people only support it because they have been “zombified” by a totalitarian regime. But this is missing the wood for the trees.

Nato members concede that Western militaries risk running out of the ammunition Kyiv needs, but also protect themselves going forward

Far from the battlefield of Ukraine, a new conflict is taking shape that could determine the future of the war – one between Western governments and the global arms industry.

Nato member states gathered in Brussels have conceded that Western militaries are in danger of running out of the ammunition Kyiv needs to win the war, but also protect themselves going forward.

Ukraine’s armed forces are burning through artillery shells at a rate of 6,000 a day – more than a smaller European country’s orders in an entire year in peacetime.

#Ukraine: A Russian Su-24M strike aircraft (RF-93799) operated by the Wagner PMC was severely damaged by a Ukrainian MANPADS strike over Bakhmut, #Donetsk Oblast.

It managed to get back to base but is very unlikely to fly again any time soon. pic.twitter.com/1MtLtNALF2

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) February 14, 2023

As the battlefront news for Ukraine turns grim, with even the New York Times conceding that “Ukrainians in [the] East” are “outnumbered and worn out,” the hope, as usual, is that a magic weapon will save the day.

We have seen many such invocations in the last twelve months: Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, M777 Howitzers, HIMARS long-range precision missile launchers, assorted Western tanks. All have been hailed in their time as potentially tipping the balance against Putin’s hordes. None have succeeded, or, in the case of as yet undelivered tanks, are likely to succeed, in altering the fundamental military balance in the war, though they contribute much to the balance sheets of the relevant Western arms corporations. Now the embattled Zelensky is calling for “wings for freedom,” jet fighters that will “close the sky,” according to one of his advisors, helping to “destroy practically any target in the air or on the ground.”

In Kherson, battle-hardened troops are prepared for the worst

The entrance to Kherson is littered with ruined market stalls that the Russians burned when they occupied the city. Inside, the centre is deserted. Cafes are shut; restaurants are boarded up. On a municipal building in Freedom Square hangs a huge McDonald’s poster, sodden with rain.

The boss of the Russian mercenary Wagner group said it could take Russia two years to seize the entire east of Ukraine in a rare interview that suggests at least some key figures in Moscow are gearing up for a protracted conflict.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has emerged from the shadows to become a high-profile figure since the start of the war, suggested Russia’s focus was now on capturing the rest of the Donbas region it has not occupied since the start of the war nearly a year ago.

Doing so would take “about one and half to two more years of work”, the ally of president Vladimir Putin said. If the goal was to occupy all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro River, this would “take about three years”, he said.

Feb 12 (Reuters) – NATO should hold an emergency meeting to discuss recent findings about September explosions at the Nord Stream gas pipelines, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said late on Saturday.

Investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, who won a Pulitzer Prize in 1970, said in a blog post on Wednesday, citing an unidentified source, that U.S. navy divers had destroyed the pipelines, with explosives on the orders of President Joe Biden.

#Ukraine: Serious Russian losses to Ukrainian AT mines and artillery in the vicinity of Avdiivka, #Donetsk Oblast: 3x BMP-1 IFV, 5x BMP-2 IFV, two ancient T-72 "Ural" tanks, and a T-72B were destroyed/damaged/abandoned.pic.twitter.com/5WJ2scLlXd

— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) February 10, 2023