Economic recession is one of the most reliable precursors to a change in government. When the economy is growing, Canadian prime ministers win elections 83 percent of the time; when it is in recession, they lose 67 percent of the time.
But economic stagnation is almost as dangerous: since 1980, incumbents have lost three in five (60 percent) elections held in contexts of economic stagnation or technical recession (two consecutive quarters of 0.2 percent growth or negative growth).
The Elbow people have an irrational tolerance for self-inflicted pain so I’m not counting on an awakening.
