At this point in the Iran conflict, it seems nothing dramatic will transpire before the November midterm elections. While President Trump is well known for unpredictability, a major bombardment would shock the world’s energy system and further raise the price of gasoline and diesel, hurting consumers, farmers, and various sectors. It would also further deplete U.S. stocks of munitions such as offensive cruise missiles and the Patriot and THAAD systems needed to defend U.S. assets and Gulf allies against Iran’s retaliation. Iran’s hopeful calculation is a Democratic sweep of Congress eventually resulting in a better deal for itself, recognition by the U.S. that it must withdraw its vulnerable bases from the Gulf, and a ruined Trump presidency.
How to Prepare for Regime Change in Iran
