The SNC affair is now an existential threat to the Trudeau government

It is at this point in the scandal, with the resignation of one of Justin Trudeau’s most competent and respected cabinet ministers, that a professional political speculator must begin to ask whether the Prime Minister can survive all the way to the fall election.

It is hard to imagine a more damaging defection than that of Jane Philpott, until Monday president of the Treasury Board. Since Trudeau’s election, Philpott had become one of the few breakout stars in an otherwise dim cabinet.