Maxime Bernier, Kevin O’Leary lead Conservative leadership field, data suggests

With less than two months to go before voting begins for the Conservative Party leadership, Maxime Bernier and Kevin O’Leary are the front-runners, according to an analysis of endorsement, fundraising and polling data.

Bernier narrowly leads O’Leary based on a composite of four metrics (endorsements, fundraising, contributors and polls) that estimates how much support each candidate would likely have on the first ballot if the leadership vote were held today — call it the Conservative Leadership Index.

The index, which gives candidates a score out of 100, was tested on 14 recent federal and provincial leadership races and replicated the first ballot results with a median error of +/- 2.2 points. The index was more predictive of first ballot outcomes than the average performance of any single metric that makes up the composite.

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