Maxime Bernier, Kevin O’Leary lead Conservative leadership field, data suggests

With less than two months to go before voting begins for the Conservative Party leadership, Maxime Bernier and Kevin O’Leary are the front-runners, according to an analysis of endorsement, fundraising and polling data.

Bernier narrowly leads O’Leary based on a composite of four metrics (endorsements, fundraising, contributors and polls) that estimates how much support each candidate would likely have on the first ballot if the leadership vote were held today — call it the Conservative Leadership Index.

The index, which gives candidates a score out of 100, was tested on 14 recent federal and provincial leadership races and replicated the first ballot results with a median error of +/- 2.2 points. The index was more predictive of first ballot outcomes than the average performance of any single metric that makes up the composite.

Share
  • LairdKintyre

    We need Kellie. Nothing could be better than a woman on the Right to give Trudeau the self proclaimed Feminist the take down he deserves.

    • Exile1981

      feminists will claim she’s not a real women.

      • LairdKintyre

        Exactly flats the whole key of identity politics, anyone can be anyone. Back in the old days they used to just call it what it was insanity. Today it’s sanctioned and put in legal place and funded by the government.

      • mobuyus

        She does look alot like my little brother.

        • Tooth&Claw

          Most female doctors are not glamourpuss material. They often have no makeup on and ‘easy’ hairstyles.

  • LairdKintyre

    Go Team Kellie.

  • LairdKintyre

    Just looked at the CBC article. It’s by Eric Grenier. That clown doesn’t know a thing. He was one of the biggest mouthpieces of CBC spinning the polls that said Hillary was going to win a landslide. Eric Grenier’s analysis isn’t worth giving a moment of your time. Congratulations in advance Ms Prime Minister Leitch.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      They’re spinning O’Leary to like they did Trump.
      But, it ain’t gonna work.
      And I think Bernier is going to win.

      • Well, at least Canadians TRY not to have boring politics. I give us an “A” for effort.

        • Justin St.Denis

          They do? Since when?

          • I heard there was a Radio station in a small Ontario town back in the early ’90’s that actually had a 5 minute discussion on something controversial.

            I know, I know — most people think was only a rumour. But I happen to believe that a brief public discussion on a controversial topic actually occurred once in Canada. It’s the closest we ever came to a revolution!

          • dance…dancetotheradio

            And then they set up a commission to spend millions of dollars in an effort to eventually tell us the blindingly obvious.
            By the way, Trudeau, where’s that commission on missing aboriginal women?

          • I think Justin switched that commission with “missing Muslim women”. But he’ll come up empty like he did with the other plan because he’ll look in all the wrong places — he needs to check the basements of their husbands, ex-husbands, fathers, brothers, etc.

          • dance…dancetotheradio
          • Clink9

            They were running with scissors that day.

      • Alain

        Just about anyone but O’Leary as far as I am concerned.

  • Raymond Hietapakka

    No more Queebec politicians. Is that racis?

    • Art Deco

      Anglophone Canada might do something sensible and negotiate a velvet divorce with Quebec. Quebec has a population of 8 million and a key city with north of 2 million resident. New Zealand performs adequately as a sovereign domain with 4.2 million and a key city of 1.3 million. You just need to work out the precise border, the share of the federal debt for which each successor state will take responsibility and the residency history it will be necessary to have to receive a settler’s permit on either side of the border and citizenship on either side of the border.

    • WalterBannon

      If they hate muslims they have my vote, and also no green energy crap/

      • Art Deco

        Muslims are a secondary problem. You’re problem is leapfrogging loyalties among the Canadian decision-making class. Your elites side with foreigners contra your domestic working class and import foreigners in order to sideline that class.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      I don’t think that Bernier is a typical Quebec politician.
      I thought about this all the way to the beer store and back in thirty below weather.
      Never heard a Quebec politician say the things he does.

  • DMB

    O’Leary clearly is trying to court the Muslim vote!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QCK5E92eyc

    • Tooth&Claw

      Yep. Seems he’d be ok with human sacrifice if your ‘faith’ demanded that. He’s not getting my vote.

      • k2

        That’s my take as well. Except for his economic proposals – which *are* very conservative as I understand it – he would fit right in with the Democrats.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      He wants to tax marijuana.
      Of all people he should know that the black market is more efficient than the government at providing any product.

  • WalterBannon

    What is needed is someone like General George Patton, a patriot, a strategic thinker, a man who did not give a damn for political correctness, and a ruthless son of a bitch.

    • Art Deco

      The Canadian electorate was down with putting Justin Trudeau in the PM’s chair, which sounds like the plot of a cannucky version of the film Americathon, I’d say you’re a ways away from producing a Patton to repair what ails you.

      • Petrilia

        Oooh free marijuana, young, great hair selfies. I voted the dreamie….. What? no free dope, screw him. That is what I am hearing from some millenials.

        • Tooth&Claw

          I believe the millennials are understanding they are the generation being screwed and badly, to the point where they may never be able to retire. Let alone at 55.

    • LairdKintyre

      That was back in the day when the West had guts. That is also the reason the practice of Sutti doesn’t exist anymore. What’s needed is a strong man to put an end to barbaric cultural practices.

      • Art Deco

        You’re not facing ‘barbaric cultural practices’. You’re facing harassment from your legal and political class for speaking your mind, exercising your natural right to free association, and being a common-and-garden Canadian. The muslims can only touch you because your politicians and lawyers hand them the tools.

        • Petrilia

          Absolute NO to M103.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      Did Ike have Patton killed?

      • Art Deco

        Patton died in a car accident.

        Eisenhower had no reason to put a contract out on any of his subordinates.

    • Petrilia

      No doubt you hate Trump, eh?

  • UCSPanther

    I like Bernier’s firearms policies…

    • Alain

      Would you expand on that please?

      • dance…dancetotheradio

        I’m on Bernier’s mailing list:
        Friend, look at how far we’ve come.
        Yesterday I announced a full firearms policy for Canada.
        It would make many AR-15s non-restricted.
        It would remove all magazine capacity limits.
        It would take the power to reclassify firearms out of the RCMP and Cabinet, and make it so that all changes to classification require a change to the law, through the House of Commons and Senate.
        And the media?
        Not a chirp.
        No news is good news.
        It means that firearms are becoming less taboo in Canada.
        And that’s a good thing.
        Because we need rational discussion, not fiery emotions.
        We need laws that make sense, and that are based on measurement and results.
        Not laws based on fear.
        It seems like the undeserved stigma against gun owners in Canada might finally be fading.
        But freedom-lovers like myself can’t give up the fight.

        • Alain

          Thank you. I was unaware of that, which is a good start. Still we need to have the right to defend oneself, one’s family and one’s property restored, and to my knowledge none of the candidates have raised that. Then there is the elephant in the room, mass immigration, that none have addressed, much less the problem with Muslim immigration. I should say that honestly not a single candidate is really inspiring as far as I am concerned. It boils down to choosing the least of the worst. I also admit that I have had my fill of French Canadians and Easterners for the job, but that is all we have from which to choose.

          • dance…dancetotheradio

            I watched all of the Trump rallies on RSBN.
            They ended with the song You Can’t Always Get What You Want.

          • Tooth&Claw

            Andrew Scheer looks good and so does Erin O’Toole to me.

        • Maggat

          Picking between Bernier and Leitch, I like Bernier’s stance on firearms, but Que, I have doubts there. I am a firm believer in Leitch’s stand on immigration and of the two issues that is probably the most important one facing the country today, as much as I’d love to see gun laws back to common sense.
          I do wish Leitch’s team would get better video ads out, hers, at present, are not working.

          • dance…dancetotheradio

            Bernier is interviewing his cabinet.

  • Justin St.Denis

    It looks like we’re fated for a leadership without any personal dynamism – again. Dynamism-free politics makes for a boring slumber party. Welcome to Canada.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      Bernier speaks the language.
      Trudeau doesn’t.
      Right?

      • Justin St.Denis

        I will grant Bernier that. Both Bernier and O’Leary could cream Shiny Pony in a serious debate.

  • DMB

    In related news with the Progressive “not” Conservative party of Ontario M.P.P. Vic Fedeli believes Ontario needs more “Safe Spaces” when it comes to millennials texting!
    https://twitter.com/VictorFedeli/status/839847216370024449

    • Petrilia

      Screw that. He once was a man with cojones.

  • Petrilia

    I was for Maxime and then Kellie, but now I want to win. Many of them are good candidates but we need a leader. Most of them will be great in Cabinet. I also think Canada has evolved enough so French is not the main barrier, otherwise why have I had to listen to poor translations from CBC etc all of my life? Why? Our leader now just wants to be loved, while putting future generations in debt. Canada needs a leader who understands economics, not emotions and knows how to win. It’s time to winnow out these 14 and go for the gold.

  • Dave

    O’Leary, really? If that ends up being our choice for conservative voters we might as well pull the plug on what’s left of this godforsaken country.

  • Sunshine

    It will take a guy to beat a guy and a good-looking Alpha guy. That’s where we are at with those brainless Millennium voters.