Why not to trust 2016 presidential polls

From editor Justin Hawkins at Townhall:

First, scientific polls rely on assumptions to accurately predict future outcomes, which means polls are only as accurate as the models that serve as their foundation. A good example of this is the male-to-female ratio of voters. Female voters are far more likely to vote for Democrats than male voters. If a poll predicts a much higher or lower ratio of women voters than what occurs on Election Day, then the poll will likely be skewed and thus inaccurate. The same is true with other demographics, such as the percentage of minority voters, Millennials voters, voter turnout in general, and other similar factors.

Because polls are designed to project the behavior of more than 120 million people, an incorrect voter model in a survey of several hundred people can easily throw election results off by many percentage points. If that’s the case, you might be wondering, why have polls historically been relatively accurate?

Scientific polls have been able to project accurate results by utilizing historic data about voter groups from previous elections. …

The problem with this year’s election, however, is many issues prevent pollsters from accurately building their models. Perhaps the most important of these is the favorability of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump. For the first time in modern history, both the Democratic and Republican candidates are incredibly unlikable. Some 60 percent of people say they dislike Mr. Trump, and after the FBI made its announcement, about the same number say they dislike Mrs. Clinton. If a majority of voters dislike both candidates, which is unprecedented for a presidential election, how can pollsters be sure voter turnout will mimic previous years?

Second, both candidates have significant segments of their own parties that dislike them, which means neither base is motivated to vote in favor of its own party’s candidate. More.

He doubts it would be possible to build an accurate model, as a result.

Reality check: It also come down to whether people will admit who they are going to vote for.

I suspect dying mainstream media would love to skew the election to Clinton, n exchange for being compliant wards of progressive government but doubt that thy actually matter that much just now. People might agree with their viewpoint, but don’t need them to express and live it.

See also: New York Times’ disastrous third quarter

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