Imagine my surprise when I woke up this morning and found myself transported back in time to August 10.
The Electoral College map you see above is the latest poll-averaged result from RealClearPolitics, and it is an exact match for my “Trump Top-End Result” scenario from nearly three months ago. It’s been a tumultuous twelve weeks, proceeding from “Too close to call” to “Trump has made enormous strides” to “Hillary can’t be stopped” and right back again today to “Too close to call.”
How does Trump get to 270 from 265?
Let’s see if we can’t find a path or two.
Plus… Election Models Predict Trump Defeats Clinton
Publicly predicting presidential election winners can be tricky. If you go with conventional wisdom and are wrong, you have to lay low for a while and hope people forget your blunder. Just ask the Chicago Tribune.
If you go with the candidate who is down in the polls, has high negatives, and is not supported by the political class and you end up right, you may get 15 minutes of fame and all the glory that goes with it. Several players are taking that risk and predicting a Trump victory using both traditional and social media based computer models.
Allan Lichtman is a distinguished professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C. He has correctly predicted 30 years of presidential election outcomes.