Three Weeks Out

From our American friend John Gilmore, on the impending election:

Is Hillary Clinton on track for a landslide win the the US presidential election? Will states that traditionally support republicans go for the most corrupt person ever to run for elected office in the history of this republic? Is Donald Trump doomed to go down in history as the most abject reject ever to run for the highest office in the nation?

Media all say yes at this time, rather desperately so. I’m not the only one who sees a disconnect from impending victory and unhappiness on the part of the Evil Party.

Yet national polls show a tie race or with Trump ahead by one or two (which is still a tie of course). State polling is now front and center but one rule of polling throughout even this strange cycle has been that national polls must roughly mirror state polling and vice versa. If Hillary is up double digits in, say, all swing states, she should at least be up in high single digits in national polls.

Only she isn’t. Not only that, she doesn’t break 50% in poll after poll, whether national or state. While the same can be said of Trump, he isn’t the one being heralded as the overwhelming victor three weeks out. Additionally, one would have to be willfully blind not to notice that many polls have democrats oversampled by 7, 9 or 12 twelve points. There’s a danger, to be sure, of “unskewing” polls to explain away results one doesn’t like. But, it seems to me, there’s also a danger in swallowing wholesale polls designed to discourage Trump voters.

Right now most polls fall into that latter category. While I pay glancing attention to them now, what an interested observer of the US election should do is ignore most of them until the final week. That’s when pollsters will want to make their best guess as to what turnout on November 8th will actually be. And in that we may have the key to present circumstances.

Most outfits are using 2012 as their turnout model. But the impending election will look nothing like that one. It’s a truism that while Hillary has the Media Party campaigning for her 24/7, in the real world there’s astonishing little enthusiasm. The reverse remains the case for Trump and his supporters and recent developments may add only energy instead of lassitude.

Wikileaks has shown beyond doubt the unadulterated corruption of American media, working hand in glove with the Clinton campaign or the Democratic National Committee. As a longtime skeptic of all things media, even I was appalled at how thoroughly corrupt they were shown to be. James O’Keefe has released two videos flatly proving that Clinton and Democrat groups paid people to disrupt Trump rallies in order to generate negative publicity. America is taking on a strange, surreal feel to it and only a cathartic cleansing seems capable of curing it.

Recently, Trump has spoken about the election being rigged. The corrupt media is aghast at such a claim but when democrats lose they suggest fraud routinely. Americans are catching on to the double standards and hypocrisy in ways they never did before. 2016 is light years ahead of 2012 in social media and other alternative news sources.

Voter fraud manifestly exists despite the denials from the Left. But what Trump is mostly referring to is 95% of media waging an unrelenting war against him, fairness, balance and neutrality having long been left for dead. So great is Trump’s threat to the established order that he’s now running against three parties: Democratic, Republican & Media.

Whether a Brexit effect exists just under the surface is something we will only know on November 8th. Tonight is the third and final debate but no matter how well Trump does (he won the second debate in a walk, only to be betrayed by national republicans two days later) media will make certain that he gains no traction.

I’ve long said that all we can expect of Trump is to never give up, to campaign ceaselessly and vigorously and to bring the accumulated energy to the finish line. It’s then up to the American people to bring him across that line, to do their part with high turnout to save the nation from the horrid remaking of it currently underway.

In a real sense then, it isn’t Donald Trump on the ballot in three weeks, it’s the Republic as founded.

Reality check: Canadian historians keep telling me that if Hill wins (and I do expect to wake up to headlines screaming A LANDSLIDE!), the United States, as founded, is over.

The fact that she is shamelessly corrupt merely demonstrates that the U.S. is moving into Third World political territory. That is, the Democrats did not need to insist on a less corrupt candidate because most people who pull the lever for Hill don’t care as long as their government cheques cash (whether they are themselves ‘crats or the dependents for whom the ‘crats buy fast food, lottery tickets, and toilet paper). But that isn’t even a Big Concept. Civilizations always drift in this direction over time.

One minor example: Most American Christians do not care that the United States has abandoned Christians to horrifying fates under Obama’s governance and many evangelicals are already sucking up to Hill, making pious noises about Trump’s jock talk. They’re right, too. As things move ahead, losers of later elections will go home and commit suicide, as in ancient times, because suicide spared their families. Lavish personal spending by governing elites won’t be seen as a form of corruption but as something we underlings daydream about and try to get in on the castoffs and leavings.

Above all, spin, narrative, and talking points replace truth, fact, and evidence. One big loser will be science, in the traditional sense. Scientists will mainly be expected to manufacture the findings the government needs.

See also: Objectivity is sexist.


The war on falsifiability in science continues