Three Weeks Out

From our American friend John Gilmore, on the impending election:

Is Hillary Clinton on track for a landslide win the the US presidential election? Will states that traditionally support republicans go for the most corrupt person ever to run for elected office in the history of this republic? Is Donald Trump doomed to go down in history as the most abject reject ever to run for the highest office in the nation?

Media all say yes at this time, rather desperately so. I’m not the only one who sees a disconnect from impending victory and unhappiness on the part of the Evil Party.

Yet national polls show a tie race or with Trump ahead by one or two (which is still a tie of course). State polling is now front and center but one rule of polling throughout even this strange cycle has been that national polls must roughly mirror state polling and vice versa. If Hillary is up double digits in, say, all swing states, she should at least be up in high single digits in national polls.

Only she isn’t. Not only that, she doesn’t break 50% in poll after poll, whether national or state. While the same can be said of Trump, he isn’t the one being heralded as the overwhelming victor three weeks out. Additionally, one would have to be willfully blind not to notice that many polls have democrats oversampled by 7, 9 or 12 twelve points. There’s a danger, to be sure, of “unskewing” polls to explain away results one doesn’t like. But, it seems to me, there’s also a danger in swallowing wholesale polls designed to discourage Trump voters.

Right now most polls fall into that latter category. While I pay glancing attention to them now, what an interested observer of the US election should do is ignore most of them until the final week. That’s when pollsters will want to make their best guess as to what turnout on November 8th will actually be. And in that we may have the key to present circumstances.

Most outfits are using 2012 as their turnout model. But the impending election will look nothing like that one. It’s a truism that while Hillary has the Media Party campaigning for her 24/7, in the real world there’s astonishing little enthusiasm. The reverse remains the case for Trump and his supporters and recent developments may add only energy instead of lassitude.

Wikileaks has shown beyond doubt the unadulterated corruption of American media, working hand in glove with the Clinton campaign or the Democratic National Committee. As a longtime skeptic of all things media, even I was appalled at how thoroughly corrupt they were shown to be. James O’Keefe has released two videos flatly proving that Clinton and Democrat groups paid people to disrupt Trump rallies in order to generate negative publicity. America is taking on a strange, surreal feel to it and only a cathartic cleansing seems capable of curing it.

Recently, Trump has spoken about the election being rigged. The corrupt media is aghast at such a claim but when democrats lose they suggest fraud routinely. Americans are catching on to the double standards and hypocrisy in ways they never did before. 2016 is light years ahead of 2012 in social media and other alternative news sources.

Voter fraud manifestly exists despite the denials from the Left. But what Trump is mostly referring to is 95% of media waging an unrelenting war against him, fairness, balance and neutrality having long been left for dead. So great is Trump’s threat to the established order that he’s now running against three parties: Democratic, Republican & Media.

Whether a Brexit effect exists just under the surface is something we will only know on November 8th. Tonight is the third and final debate but no matter how well Trump does (he won the second debate in a walk, only to be betrayed by national republicans two days later) media will make certain that he gains no traction.

I’ve long said that all we can expect of Trump is to never give up, to campaign ceaselessly and vigorously and to bring the accumulated energy to the finish line. It’s then up to the American people to bring him across that line, to do their part with high turnout to save the nation from the horrid remaking of it currently underway.

In a real sense then, it isn’t Donald Trump on the ballot in three weeks, it’s the Republic as founded.

Reality check: Canadian historians keep telling me that if Hill wins (and I do expect to wake up to headlines screaming A LANDSLIDE!), the United States, as founded, is over.

The fact that she is shamelessly corrupt merely demonstrates that the U.S. is moving into Third World political territory. That is, the Democrats did not need to insist on a less corrupt candidate because most people who pull the lever for Hill don’t care as long as their government cheques cash (whether they are themselves ‘crats or the dependents for whom the ‘crats buy fast food, lottery tickets, and toilet paper). But that isn’t even a Big Concept. Civilizations always drift in this direction over time.

One minor example: Most American Christians do not care that the United States has abandoned Christians to horrifying fates under Obama’s governance and many evangelicals are already sucking up to Hill, making pious noises about Trump’s jock talk. They’re right, too. As things move ahead, losers of later elections will go home and commit suicide, as in ancient times, because suicide spared their families. Lavish personal spending by governing elites won’t be seen as a form of corruption but as something we underlings daydream about and try to get in on the castoffs and leavings.

Above all, spin, narrative, and talking points replace truth, fact, and evidence. One big loser will be science, in the traditional sense. Scientists will mainly be expected to manufacture the findings the government needs.

See also: Objectivity is sexist.


The war on falsifiability in science continues

  • I predict a Trump victory, the polls are skewed as is the media and the entire political class – no matter what stripe.

    Trump is smart to drain the swamp and call for term limits, we need it in Canada as well. Politics should never be a “lifestyle choice” it corrupts even the best over time.

    After that public service unions – the new predator class – have to be smashed.

    • canminuteman

      I predict a Hillary victory. I don’t think this is going to be even close to a free and fair election and I don’t think Trump can overcome the margins of fraud. I also think the fraud will be so blatant that there is a potential for violent upheaval and maybe civil war in the aftermath.

      • I do hope you are wrong, I cannot believe people would vote for Hillary the Corrupt.

    • I hope and pray you BCF and John Gilmore are right – that Trump will indeed win. If Hell Klinton wins, it will truly be a disaster for Western civilization, from which it may never recover.

      However, I remember that I was optimistic that Trudeau would not win, and then totally devastated when he did win, unable to believe that so many Canadians could be so stupid. What scares me the most is the statistic regularly posted in Foxnews that Obummer has a positive rating from over 50% of Americans – if there are that many Americans who have not seen how terrible eight years of Obama have bee for the US and the world, then we are doomed. I hope you are right and I am wrong.

      What is sure is that all Trump supporters who have the vote must go our and vote and get others to vote. Maybe, just maybe he can then win.

      • Interesting that you note Obama’s approval ratings, Trudeau enjoys an even higher rating but oddly the public disagrees with his policy initiatives, it’s discussed in a post coming up later today.

        • Alain

          Those approval ratings are as corrupt as the polls.

      • Justin St.Denis

        Like you, I was gobsmacked by Trudeau’s victory. I note that our social calendar is lighter now, and we host more guests from abroad than before.

        • dance…dancetotheradio

          Don’t worry because it is an empty victory.
          They are trying to tame the housing bubble now.
          Not gonna do it.

    • Alain

      I hope you are right about Trump’s victory and totally agree about the need to put an end to career politicians (politics as a lifestyle choice). It is also imperative to ban public service unions.

  • Norman_In_New_York

    I have no intention of changing my vote. Trump is crude and vulgar? We need blunt talk to cut through the bs that has debased us.

    • He is a refreshing breeze, and a much needed tonic to the careerist hacks on both sides of the fence.

      • Justin St.Denis

        And you have to love how Trump kicks the shit out of the MSM. So many talking heads exploding simultaneously is almost islamic, huh? I would love to see the end of Chris Wallace, Anderson Cooper, Shep Smith, Rachel Maddow, Chris Hayes and their ilk. Treasonous little teletubbies one and all!

  • Jay Currie

    Back in the summer I predicted a landslide but I didn’t know which side of the mountain was coming down. I am, as my elder son will tell you, awful at political predictions but I am sticking with that one.

    For Hillary to win she needed to demonize Trump. I think she failed in that. The only people who think Trump is Satan/Hitler/a very bad thing are movie stars, media insiders and RINOs. A noisy but relatively small group.

    Meanwhile, despite the best efforts of the media, Wikileaks, Bill’s endless zipper problems, the HRC email outrage and assorted revelations about the Hilly campaign are taking their toll. They don’t move the needle much in terms of support for Trump – Trump supporters already knew she was a crooked skank – rather in terms of erroding her own support.

    Even with significant vote fraud, elections are won by those who show up. Trump’s deplorables will show up. Will Hilly’s exquisites?

    Does anyone really think that the same numbers of black voters will turn out for the nice white lady as turned out for Obama? What about Millennials? Is Hilly about Hope and Change? Do young idealists dream of the utopia which will be Hilly’s America? Yes, the ladies in their brigades will turn up but even they are unlikely to cast their ballots with much enthusiasm and, at the margins, may find something else to do on election day.

    Trump’s confessed supporters are going to show up to vote. But his landslide will come from people who are shy about admitting they like the man and Hilly “supporters” who, realizing she is a liar and a crook, will stay home when it matters.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      Nice white lady?