Statisticians Warn Of “Systemic Mainstream Misinformation” In Poll Data

If you recently glanced at the polls and the election markets, then you would be forgiven to believe that a landslide election is looming.  It’s likely not, and the spreads have the potential to revert in surprising ways between now and Election Day.  The drumbeat of negative news against Donald Trump may not cause further damage.  We’ve discussed numerously, starting on October 11 and October 12, that Hillary Clinton’s runaway spread would revert (here, here, here, here).

Of course that’s a stand taken against a popular headwind, but also an opportunity to make money on an election bet that is mispriced. 

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