The Debate Debate

The analysis we’ve been waiting for: Our American friend, John Gilmore, on last night’s Trump-Hill debate:

It’s one thing to argue amongst one’s countrymen about the relative value of something tens of millions watched at the same time. It’s slightly disconcerting to have to explain it to another country, one that shares a long border, is an important trading partner and which, for the most part, speaks the same language.

So let’s get to it: regardless of who one thought won last night’s first presidential debate, it won’t have much, if any, effect on the outcome of the race. Why hold them in the first place? That’s a good question with few satisfying answers at present.

Many observers thought Trump won the debate. Many observers thought Hillary did. There was plenty of post-debate spin for one’s political preference, you simply had to seek it out.

Trump won every single online poll except CNN’s, which admitted to stacking the deck two to one with democrats. This means something, I suppose, but not all that much. Yet one poll had 400,000 respondents while another had 800,000, both of which Trump won handily. Make of it what you will.

The moderator of the debate was generally seen as having actively assisted Hillary, leading republicans to wonder aloud yet again why they agree to the Media Party playing such a role. I take comfort in the fact that Trump has marginalized media’s power this election cycle like no one before him. That satisfaction is ongoing.

The campaign resumes again today, with Trump having several appearances in several states while Hillary will appear before small crowds, carefully scripted and relentlessly ineffective.

The glaring issue omission last night was immigration. It strongly favors Trump so in one sense there’s no surprise it wasn’t raised. But it still is an animating, important issue in the campaign and people won’t likely forget about it between now and November 8th.

Yesterday saw the release of any number of polls, all favoring Trump. States that “shouldn’t” be in play are, confounding the establishment punditry that has for some time gotten virtually nothing right about this election. Even my own state of Minnesota, which hasn’t voted for a republican for president since 1972, was found to be tied at 43% for each candidate. Other, more important states have Trump tied or actually ahead, leading several pollsters to conclude that if the election was today, he’d win. The reaction on the left was something to behold.

The sanest analysis about last night holds that the trajectory of the race hasn’t changed and I think this is correct. Hillary needed a stellar performance which she didn’t deliver while Trump needed to make fatal, ghastly errors that derailed his momentum. That didn’t happen either. The remaining two debates, plus one vice presidential debate, seem unlikely to yield a different result and with smaller viewing audiences expected.

Seventy percent of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. It’s difficult to see how, at the end of the day and with turnout models increasingly showing an electorate highly favorable to Trump, that Hillary can win a third Obama term. Her vast sums of money spent trying to take Trump down have proven ineffective in the extreme. Trump, criticized by traditional analysts for not spending much on ads, now is poised to unleash a $140 million dollar blitz in carefully targeted states. That can hardly hurt him and may help.

Michael Moore, the somewhat iconic film director of the Left, complained last night on Twitter that Trump had won outright and the apocalypse continued to approach unabated. Mind you, he said in July that he thought Trump would win and clearly nothing he saw in the debate changed his mind. I’ll take it.

Reality check: Americans need to decide if they want to join the Third World, which Obama’s third term would certainly help them do. Alternatively, they could continue to provide hope for people who think that work and achievement matter more than grievance and entitlement.

The big problem, as many Canadians see it, is that Trump—should he win—is likely a one-term wonder who does not eviscerate the bureaucracy that enables Third World politics north of the Rio Grande. If he does not slash the federal civil service to one quarter strength and persuade most states to do the same, it is still over. And that is only a start.

The civil service and other government union workers (who should also be slashed to one-quarter strength), in both the United States and Canada, have nothing to lose by delivering election after election to their identity, grievance, and entitlement clients.

Added: I doubt the debate makes any difference. In early November, the US, the big catalyst for a free world will decide if it wishes to continue to be so or to descend into the stink and scum of identity, grievance, and entitlement politics – the stink and scum that have barred most of the world from advancement for millennia.

Also: Republicans want to lose. It’s their business, while they help plunder the US public. How many Americans really want to pee in public in front of members of the opposite sex? But the GOP can’t bring itself to represent the vast majority because it is sold out to big donors. That is why it will not survive this election, whoever wins.

See also: Trump plays the legacy media again They keep tweeting “we been had” and swear words. Ummmm!

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  • Polls and popular votes do not determine US elections – the electoral college does. Hillary still leads there although more states are in play than were ever expected. This battle, like most other elections, is going to come down to cities (liberal) versus flyover areas (Conservative) and yes, the game is rigged. Hillary is in a fight for her freedom as well as the Presidency and cannot risk losing.

    • mauser 98

      Hill has given up on Ohio re latest reports

    • V10_Rob

      My read is that a significant chunk of ‘undecideds’ are actually secretly Trump, but have no desire to open themselves up to backlash from leftist crazies, or to get into arguments with apoplectic friends and family.

  • BillyHW

    Lester Holt was a disgrace. He was Candy Crowley on steroids. His questions all reflected what the Democratic world-view thought was important, and he thought his job was to live “fact”-check Trump, but not Clinton. He even scolded the crowd if they did a pro-Trump cheer, but not when it was a pro-Clinton cheer.

    Why do Republicans keep letting themselves be conned into these debates with media party operatives? Enough is enough. Find someone neutral or forget about it.

    • Republicans want to lose. It’s their business, while they help plunder the US public. How many Americans really want to pee in public in front of members of the opposite sex? But the GOP can’t bring itself to represent the vat majority because it is sold out to big donors.

  • “Trump won every single online poll except CNN’s, which admitted to stacking the deck two to one with democrats. This means something, I suppose, but not all that much. Yet one poll had 400,000 respondents while another had 800,000, both of which Trump won handily. Make of it what you will.”

    That is telling.

    I think Clinton performed better than expected and Trump less so, he should have let loose on Bill and his women, the emails etc that said he did not embarrass himself and as noted historically debates seldom change minds.

    • BillyHW

      He missed some juicy opportunities to strike back, especially on the Clinton Foundation and Haiti, but Lester Holt made damn sure Hillary would be playing on home turf for the entire night. If the moderator had been neutral we’d all be saying Trump won, even if it wasn’t a blowout.

  • Sunshine

    Hillary cheated. She had list of prepared answers to all the questions on her lectern.
    In other words, she knew the questions beforehand.
    Take a look: https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/27/the-cleaner-quick-as-a-flash/

    • Alain

      She was also wearing an ear bud strongly suggesting she was being coached and fed answers.

      • V10_Rob

        I wonder if there’s some way for Trump to bring a short-range jammer in his suit pocket. Just strong enough to reach across the stage, and operating on frequencies that don’t interfere with the mics.

  • robins111

    I suppose it’s impossible for the media to recognize that every time they stack the deck to support Reptilary that Trump goes up in favorability. It appears they are that effing dozy.

    • They lack an ability for self reflection as they are so enamoured of their own ordained self-importance.

      • Alain

        That is always the case of any agenda-driven group.

  • I doubt the debate makes any difference. In early November, the US, the big catalyst for a free world will decide if it wishes to continue to be so or to descend into the stink and scum of identity, grievance, and entitlement politics – the stink and scum that have barred most of the world from advancement for millennia.

  • simus1

    Trump’s strategy is like the vulture following a wandering spavined old horse.
    Be patient, let it know you are always there but let the stress do all the work

    • He should provide her directions to the glue factory.

      • Justin St.Denis

        They must have used a highway paving crew to apply Hillary’s makeup. She looked almost alive during the debate! Rather amazing……….

        • Clausewitz

          Spackle is a wondrous product.

        • Clink9

          Most likely someone from a funeral home.

  • GrimmCreeper

    The choice seems very simple. Bigger government, bigger government solutions, bigger government spending and more taxes to solve the same problems that the federal government hasn’t been able to solve for eons, after spending trillions of dollars. Or something else. I’ll go with something else.

    • I’m hoping the electorate understands that Clinton equals graft on a massive scale.

    • Slickfoot The Deplorable

      In this case… I’ll take the devil I don’t know.

  • Norman_In_New_York

    The first impressions provided by our little community here last night was that the debate was a draw. This is not necessarily bad for Trump because he was able to roll with the punches. If his restraint lured some wayward Republicans back into the fold, along with some independents, then it proved a net plus.

  • Tom Forsythe

    Not asking about immigration in this debate is like not asking Lincoln and Douglass about slavery. “Senator Lincoln, your first business failed. You have no formal education…”

  • Mannie

    The following applies to Football players and all other pissy entertainers:

    Dear celebrities

    You exist for my entertainment. Some of you are great eye candy. Some of you can carry or throw a ball. Some of you can deliver a line with such conviction that you bring tears to my eyes. Some of you can scare the crap out of me. Others make me laugh. But you all have one thing in common; you only have a place in my world to entertain me. That’s it.

    You make your living pretending to be someone else, or performing feats of physical prowess. You Play dress up like a 6 year old. You live in a make believe world in front of a camera, and often when you are away from one too. Your very existence depends on my patronage.

    I’ll crank the organ grinder; you dance.

    I don’t really care where you stand on issues. Honestly, your stance matters far less to me than that of my garbage man. You see, you aren’t real. I turn off my TV or shut down my computer and you cease to exist in my world. Once I am done with you, I can put you back in your little box until I want you to entertain me again.

    I don’t care that you think of the management or fate of the country, or your view of our policies. But I bet you looked cute saying it.

    And you? Really? I’m supposed to care what the director of fluffy tripe made for gullible people thinks about global warming or gun control? Get back into your bubble. I’ll let you know when I’m in the mood for something blue and shiny.

    And I’m also supposed to care that you will leave this great country if Trump becomes president? Ha. Don’t let the door hit you in the arse. We’d like to reserve your seat for someone who loves this country and really wants to be here.

    Make me laugh, or cry. Scare me. Inspire me. But realize that the only words or actions of yours that matter are scripted. I might agree with some of you from time to time, but it doesn’t matter. You don’t matter. In my world, you exist solely for my entertainment.

    So, shut your pie hole and dance, monkey!

    {Modified from a text by Scooter Tramp}