What’s really happening with the US election – that legacy media won’t tell you

From our American friend John Gilmore:

Canadians must marvel at the Byzantine twists and turns that constitute this American presidential cycle. The truth is, given the singular nature of this election, so are most Americans who are following closely. This post gives an overview of the race in mid-September without eye glazing detail.

Simply put, Trump is winning and the Clinton campaign, democrats and the republican elite are beside themselves. Trump leads in national polls but, crucially, has taken the lead in several swing states that are essential to winning in the Electoral College. This is the true source of existential angst among his opponents and the media (which this cycle are one and the same).

Hillary Clinton famously collapsed while leaving early the commemoration ceremonies at ground zero for 9/11 on 9/11. Media were told to stay behind as she left and it was only an average citizen with a cell phone camera who captured what inarguably damaged the Clinton campaign grievously. Her doctor’s diagnosis of pneumonia was, to borrow from the late Christopher Hitchens, enough to make a cat laugh.

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American media were standing on chairs screaming questions at him as he departed. This isn’t a metaphor: they literally stood on chairs, barking mad. They’d been punked, trolled, Rick rolled, whatever term you like for having been had and had hard.

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Trump has run a disciplined campaign for the last month and polling released this week shows it. His focus on jobs and the economy, trade and manufacturing, as well as immigration have paid off handsomely.

No election is in a vacuum, however, and Hillary’s campaign of essentially hiding her way into the White House has been an abject failure. At the same time, when she does make carefully controlled, relatively brief appearances, voters don’t care for what they see. This is called a dilemma.

More, the traditional coalition that was thought capable of being transferred from a twice successful Obama to Hillary is fracturing and apathetic. Young voters in particular find her dishonest and untrustworthy. This lack of support doesn’t need to go to Trump, however, in order to help him. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson appears to be the beneficiary of this distaste for Hillary. He has no chance of winning a single state let alone the election.

Subtraction and addition is working in Trump’s favor. Yesterday polls showed him tied in Michigan, a state that hasn’t gone republican since 1988. He’s also leading in Colorado, where the state was thought to be so much in the Hillary bag her campaign pulled down advertising weeks ago, as well as Nevada, thought to have too much an Hispanic voting block to be competitive. In a cycle where all bets have been off, those three states are genuinely revealing.

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It could be that we’re seeing the election be won in the month of September. Polls are moving in a direction that traditionally have been very hard to reverse once started.

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Ohio, by the way, which has voted for the eventual presidential winner every election since 1964, has Trump up by 5 and so consistently that many analysts (not that they’ve been worth much this cycle) have largely ceded it to the insurgent candidate.

Then comes predicted turnout models, which is another word for voter enthusiasm. There’s simply no comparison. Yes, large rallies don’t necessarily mean victory come November 8th but they mean something, they’re simply not nothing. By painful contrast, Hillary routinely is unable to fill small venues. Even then, she rarely speaks for more than fifteen minutes. Trump holds forth for an hour or more, only now via teleprompter which allows little room for an off-message misstep.

Shortly before I posted this, Trump held an event at his new DC hotel. The media had resurrected the birther issue and had come after him on it, again, having run out of new attacks. He promised to address it at today’s event, despite his campaign putting out a statement last night that Obama was born in America. Because he himself hadn’t said those words, this wasn’t enough for the media.

At the event Medal of Honor winners held forth for the first thirty minutes, which was covered wall to wall in America. It was remarkable. After the last endorsement of many decorated officers, Trump said Hillary had originated the birther controversy and he was ending it, saying categorically Obama was born in America. Then boom: thank you very much and ended the event.

American media were standing on chairs screaming questions at him as he departed. This isn’t a metaphor: they literally stood on chairs, barking mad. They’d been punked, trolled, Rick rolled, whatever term you like for having been had and had hard.

Rage accurately described the media reaction and it was glorious to behold. Drudge’s headline was “Trump Trolls Media” and he completely, wholly did. The weekend will be spent with various reporters and news outlets trying to outdo another in their righteous anger. Meanwhile, the average voter who’s paying attention will be chuckling.

The first presidential debate is September 26th and we’ll be battered with various analyses as to the stakes, the preparation, the build up. It’s all rather tedious but for Clinton and her media supporters it will be crucial to declare Trump loses . . . well, hugely. Aside from Trump slapping Hillary or wetting himself, they won’t matter so long as he performs as well as she does; in other words ties. There’s no reason to believe he won’t hit that mark and continue along the same successful paths he has trod since early August.

It could be that we’re seeing the election be won in the month of September. Polls are moving in a direction that traditionally have been very hard to reverse once started.

The businessman candidate has his campaign firing on all cylinders. Enthusiasm for him in America is pervasive, cutting across all known demographics and party affiliations.

Trump is making a deal with America and he’s in the middle of his closing. My hunch is that his prospective customers need only a bit more before gladly signing.

Reality check: Young voters, Hillary is the Mom who would have aborted you. For now, she needs your Votes. You can be dead and still vote, by the way, so go ahead and commit suicide. Historians I hear from say this is the last election in which Americans can decide to be Americans of every race, creed and color, instead of just global pawns.

See also: Trump plays the legacy media again They keep tweeting “we been had” and swear words. Ummmm!

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  • robins111

    You’d have thought they learned their lesson after they decided to ambush him shortly after the Brexit. But no they gaggled together to get rooted again by someone who’s been playing them for fools for months. Checkers and Chess.

  • The Butterfly

    If the situation was switched and the Republicans had the media on their side the way the Democrats do, there’s no way they could lose an election.

  • Clausewitz

    It aint over till the dead fat lady sings.

    • andycanuck

      And she’s voted Democrat five times.

  • Observer

    The Democrats still have their old standby to use against Trump, the unsubstantiated rape accuser, which usually attracts more unsubstantiated accusers.

    • V10_Rob

      Conceivably. But if I were a member of the Clintons’ dirty tricks squad, I’d be cautioning against it. Partly because the left and the media (but I repeat myself) have cried wolf too often, and any allegation without hard evidence will be ignored, or be treated with extreme suspicion that could blowback into hostility at Dems. And partly because it risks bringing Bill’s past (and present?) into the conversation.

      • andycanuck

        And Hillary has her own rape problem living in her house so that dog won’t hunt.

  • Clinton

    “Media were told to stay behind as she left and it was only an average
    citizen with a cell phone camera who captured what inarguably damaged
    the Clinton campaign grievously”

    Remember when Bill Clinton had his 20-minute meeting with Loretta Lynch
    prior to the DOJ declining to indict his wife? We have no photos of that
    politically damaging meeting because Bill and Loretta’s security details
    ordered the media to put away their cameras, and the lapdog media
    complied. Here again, with Hillary’s collapse, the media was ordered to
    put away their cameras, and like the good little lapdogs they are, they
    obeyed. Thank heaven a citizen did the job so-called “reporters” opted
    to shirk.

    Any journalist worthy of the name would have moved mountains to get
    photos of either of those events. The MSM we have today, however, aren’t
    journalists, but propagandists, accepting direction from those they
    supposedly report on.

    • Norman_In_New_York

      This good citizen effectively asked, “Where are the empress’s clothes?”

  • GrimmCreeper

    That sums it up nicely. Soon we’ll get to see if he can be a closer.

  • Hard Little Machine

    If Hillbag runs under 4% below Trump for more than 2 weeks, Obama will have him arrested and tossed in prison as an enemy combatant w/o charge or right to counsel. Whether Obama decides to permit the election to go forward or he pitches the now single candidate election to the Electoral College or simply declares himself Interim Supreme Leader Until Further Notice is anyone’s guess.

    • andycanuck

      I don’t think so.

      Obama hates doing any real work or anything approaching work and other than issuing pardons like a mutha-fucka in his last few months, I think he just wants to get out; make millions doing SFA on the talk circuit etc.; and play golf. (Maybe dump Moochelle too.)

  • andycanuck

    Another brilliant commentary on top of John’s analysis, Denyse. Cheers!