Why a Trump victory in November is a virtual certainty

To venture the prediction that Donald Trump is a sure bet to be elected President in November sounds about as outlandish, perhaps even ludicrous and delusional as anything coming out of the mouth of the candidate.

Polls, on the average, as tracked by RealClearPolitics and the Huffington Post, along with prediction markets like PredicIt and the Iowa Electronic Market, as well as several models featured at the recent meeting of the American Political Science Association all agree that Hillary Clinton is the heavy favorite to win.

One model, however, begs to differ. It is one that, with slight variations, has accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote in each of the last five presidential elections, ever since it was introduced in 1996.

  • Hard Little Machine

    This will not be a real election. Hillary bought the office and it will be hers if she has to have Trump’s plane shot down. You won’t see her in public until election day and it doesn’t matter. Liberals have always quietly whispered that they hoped Hillary would be a figurehead – a work around the constitutional limit on a Bill Clinton 3rd term. Now we effectively HAVE Bill Clinton as the nominee campaigning.

    • I don’t see it. Bill looks seriously unwell. Worse than Hillary. Drained. The old charm isn’t there. Plus a lot of people think he’s a rapist now.

      • Hard Little Machine

        Again, does not matter. There isn’t going to BE a legitimate voting process. We saw the prototype of this with Michael Bloomberg who, in his first ‘election’ as mayor of NYC spent $88 per vote of his own money to buy the office and then change the law so he could run for a third term. Hillary and Bill played a bigger deeper game with other people’s money. No one who buys the entire FBI and DoJ is going to leave the outcome up to the ‘voters’, the mud people she can barely stand to be around for 10 seconds. Even if they really were as stupid and bovine as Hillary believes, she would never in a second let herself believe that her ‘victory’ is in any way because anything other people did. This is 100% her. This is the nature of paranoid sociopathy.

      • lolwut?

        Bill hates social media, he’s been complaining about it being
        used to smear him and Hillary.

        The elites are in panic mode, the mainstream media is being replaced
        and they know it.

  • Norman_In_New_York

    The fallacy here is that elections are not decided by voters but by those who count the votes.

  • Alain

    I do hope it becomes true; otherwise the United States will join Canada in going down the drain.