Always correct election forecast model predicts Trump win, 51%-48%

Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988.

Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.

He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.


  • Ed

    If he would stop telling us how smart he is, people might not notice all these unforced errors he makes and wonder HOW SMART?

    And putting his kids in senior roles within his campaign… people that have zero experience in politics…

    In the end, if this thing goes in the ditch, the blow back against Republican Officialdom will be fierce. This party refused to put out a candidate that represented voters. They were more loyal to the chamber of commerce and internationalism and this is what happened.

  • mauser 98
  • tamale

    With expected rampant voter fraud, it is actually not clear that Trump will win, even if polls indicate majority. It is certainly interesting to watch this thing play out.

  • marty_p

    I just got home from a week in Virginia where I listened to conservative talk radio for the week (Rush, Glen Beck, Mark Levin) as I went about the touristy stuff.
    The MSM are busy with a new tactic – predict that Trump is losing so badly that your vote is meaningless so why bother voting as Hillary as POTUS is a foregone conclusion. All the news networks excluding Fox are trumpeting the same BS.
    The average people I spoke to on the street are voting Trump.
    The majority of lawn signs I saw were Trump as I traveled through NY, PA and VA..
    Nobody seems to have bumper stickers (dunno if it’s because Trump supporters are afraid of their vehicles being vandalized or that it’s too early yet).

    • Clink9

      It’s like the “shocking” Rob Ford victory.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      The number of people going to Trump rallies versus the number of people not going to Clinton rallies tells me all I need to know.
      I have never seen the level of support for a candidate on this scale before.
      The media can ignore it but we have the internet.

  • Slickfoot

    Did this factor in democrat cheating?