Threats to the Netherlands from the jihadist corner is “more complex and difficult than ever before”, according to general intelligence service AIVD’s annual report for 2015. There are people in the Netherlands who want to travel to fight alongside ISIS, but are unable to, so instead they may want to carry out attacks in the Netherlands. The attacks in Brussels and Paris last year show that terrorist organizations are capable of carrying out complex and well-executed attacks.
The AIVD divides the jihadists currently in the Netherlands into three groups. Firstly, jihadists that went to fight in Syria or Iraq, gained combat experienced and returned, likely traumatized. The second group consists of those who wanted to go fight for ISIS in the Syrian civil war, but were prevented from leaving the Netherlands. This group may be frustrated by their lack of success and turn to carrying out attacks in the Netherlands instead. The third group consists of jihadists that have never been to Syria or Iraq and do not intend to travel there, but may be willing to carry out attacks at home.