Yes, our American friend was cornered in a flat in a middle eastern metropolis. Briefly deprived of Twitterfeed (to him what Kryptonite is to Superman), he agreed to write this for us:
I’m finishing up a week’s vacation in Istanbul and today was awoken before the morning call to prayer. Let me assure you that that is indeed early (for those of you who know Istanbul, I’m staying in a private flat just off Sultanahmet Square with a view of the Blue Mosque from one of my windows). I was awoken by notices cascading into and onto my iPhone about the early New York returns and what they portended.
Trump Towers, blared the New York tabloids later in the day and that, in fact, was the case.
As of this writing it appears Trump will receive 90 of the 95 delegates available in this primary. His win was wide and deep, forcing even some of his most relentless critics to admit that he had, in a single primary, made the path to the requisite 1,237 delegates substantially more likely. This was a bitter admission from those who had for months denied the reality of Trump’s appeal to a base that hasn’t been this energized in several generations.
To be candid, this comes as a relief to his supporters, who are often derided as ignorant or worse. In fact, they know more than anyone the strengths and weaknesses of their candidate.
Ted Cruz, Trump’s sole remaining substantial competitor, was destroyed by the Empire State, earning a pathetic 15% of the vote and zero delegates.
The upcoming states–Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, New Jersey & Rhode Island–will favor Trump as well. This gives him quite a stretch of doing nothing but “winning.”
To be candid, this comes as a relief to his supporters, who are often derided as ignorant or worse. In fact, they know more than anyone the strengths and weaknesses of their candidate. The last two weeks saw Trump quiet by his standards, tweeting much less often and speaking in measured tones with an eye toward the convention in Cleveland in July and beyond.
Trump’s victory speech was short, gracious and focused. Everything, in a word, that it should have been. He was scrupulously on message and when he is, he’s at his most effective.
Thank Paul Manafort, says the conventional wisdom, which for a change is not wrong or facile. Manafort is an experienced player in this realm and his management of Trump’s campaign is increasingly obvious and increasingly effective. He was recently hired and with not much time to spare. Having said that, the more reality based observers are starting to admit that Trump will be the nominee, for good or for ill.
I’ve said in this space that if he won South Carolina, which he did handily, he would be the republican nomination. The GOP establishment has shown itself to be hide bound, blinkered and incompetent, content with feeding at the trough of the status quo whether elections were won by it or not.
Trump has a knack for succinctly and fatally defining his opponents. He call Jeb Bush low energy and referred to Senator Rubio as Little Marco.
The discussion going forward will now be how Cruz is simply unable to compete with Trump in large areas of the country, cementing a reputation for losing. “Lose with Cruz” applies both to the nomination and the general election.
A “tell” is something in gambling which gives away the game, usually denoting a bluff. The most interesting tell of the night (and early morning here) came from Anthony Scaramucci.
He is one of the GOP’s top fundraisers in a cycle which has shown their ownership of the republican party to an unprecedented degree and concomitant contempt for the base.
He tweeted: “If [Trump] doesn’t get to 1237 it won’t be by much. Stealing nomination from him at that point would be party suicide.”
Quite. And the party will not commit suicide no matter how much bravado is currently being thrown about. Then it’s on to the general election against Lady Macbeth, who handily won New York over Bernie Sanders.
Trump has a knack for succinctly and fatally defining his opponents. He call Jeb Bush low energy and referred to Senator Rubio as Little Marco. Of course, he continues to call Cruz Lyin’ Ted.
He unveiled this week his moniker for Mrs. Clinton: Crooked Hillary.
This will stick because it’s true. The next seven and a half months will prove to be remarkably interesting and unusual.
As I’m fond of saying on Twitter: “Never end, cycle.”
Note: An earlier version of this post incorrectly gave the moniker as “Corrupt Hillary.” Apologies for misprint.
Reality check: The Animal is an amazing analyst, and I recommend his previous posts, linked starting from the “long messy ground war,” working backwards.
Of course, he has the advantage that there is now a huge media industry, both progressive and conservative, with a probably unconscious interest in avoiding a confrontation with the most serious issues of our time. Why else the National Review’s hatefest against the working class?
All that said, when Trump faces Clinton, he is playing the serious game for once.
The fact that he was a candidate at all shows that a large proportion of the potential-to-actual Republican base in the United States already knows a lot of things that people are just waking up to here.
His upcoming war with Lady MacBeth is the real test: Will Americans agree to be governed as if the United States is already a third world country – where criminality in government surprises no one and media just sweep up and take out the garbage? American can use their EBT cards at strip joints, abortion clinics, recreational drug stores, euthanasia clinics, and tattoo parlours, but traditional civil liberties like free speech and freedom of religion are a constantly monitored threat? I suspect Canadians have already decided, or will do so in the next few years.
See also: Our American Friend on the long, messy ground war till GOP Convention 2016
Trying to understand the Trump candidacy Part 4 Globalization means, among other things, a levelling of the expectations for government.
Botworld: Where the citizen is no longer an asset Botworld bears very directly on the Trump campaign because the GOP cannot afford to acknowledge or deal with its significance. Too compromised.