Our American Friend: Wisconsin is not Waterloo

The following arrived by paper airplane, as the power was out in Minnesota, so our American friend was perforce off Twitter again. Thus he was free to scratch down his thoughts on last night’s Wisconsin primary:

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As I predicted in this space recently, Ted Cruz last night won the Wisconsin primary, likely winning 36 out of the state’s 42 delegates. In an interesting change, Trump won the late deciding voters, indicating that the two prior weeks of campaigning had hurt him in the state. Trump’s campaign manager was charged with accosting a reporter after an event (video shows no such thing and the Florida prosecutor is a partisan democrat). Trump also retweeted an unflattering photo of Cruz’s wife Heidi next to his own wife. Both generated unusually large amounts of negative publicity and Wisconsin voters are some of the most attentive in the nation.

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Wisconsin has a highly developed and coordinated republican establishment which was mostly unified in its desire to “stop Trump.”

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The reality is that Wisconsin wasn’t Trump territory to begin with and the road ahead looks exceptionally good for him, not least because many of the upcoming contests are winner take all. Being located in the geographic northeast of the country also means there’s little appeal for the personally repulsive Cruz, although the remaining candidate John Kasich may get some traction. Last night he was completely frozen out.

The republican establishment was especially eager to see Trump lose but they made something of fools out of themselves by declaring the Wisconsin loss to be his Waterloo. Only Waterloo is Waterloo and nothing else, much in the same way that only Hitler is Hitler but this seems too difficult a lesson for the pundit class to absorb.

Being part of the media means that they, too, are lazy.

Wisconsin has a highly developed and coordinated republican establishment which was mostly unified in its desire to “stop Trump.” This is a bit grandiose as it simply gave Trump a single state loss but such remains the antipathy toward Trump that any setback he suffers is seen by GOPe as much more than that. This is understandable but wrong.

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On the democratic side, socialist senator Bernie Sanders trounced Lady Macbeth by surprising margins. The use of “superdelegates” poisons this race by tilting the playing field to Hillary Clinton in ways unimaginable, for all their troubles, in the republican party. Sanders spoke of an open convention last night but the fix is in for Clinton and all that remains for the base to see is how profoundly undemocratic the Democratic Party has become.

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Much is made of the fact that Trump may not get the 1,237 delegates necessary for the nomination before the convention in Cleveland. Yet no one currently running has anything close to such a path besides Trump. Much of the current maneuvering is designed to negate the entire primary season so the insiders can call it un-determinative and put in their own man at the convention.

Yet even as Wisconsin voters handed Trump a defeat something like 65% of them agreed that the candidate who has the most delegates should be the nominee. This contradicts the preferred narrative but rest assured most of those who want a bait and switch at the convention will ignore it.

On the democratic side, socialist senator Bernie Sanders trounced Lady Macbeth by surprising margins. The use of “superdelegates” poisons this race by tilting the playing field to Hillary Clinton in ways unimaginable, for all their troubles, in the republican party. Sanders spoke of an open convention last night but the fix is in for Clinton and all that remains for the base to see is how profoundly undemocratic the Democratic Party has become.

Going forward on the republican side, the remaining primaries will be a pitched battle between Trump and whoever else the establishment wants to put up to try to stop him. Wisconsin has given them false hopes about a contested convention and a chimerical “unity” candidate who will rally everyone together.

It won’t happen. The republican nominee will either be Donald Trump or the election can be declared over in July.

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Reality check: The main story here is that the GOP doesn’t seem to want the candidate the plurality of the base apparently wants. From a Canadian perspective, one would say that a third party is in the birth canal, and that—absent competent assistance—either one or both of the participants in the birthing struggle will die.

Some people will eventually come forward to represent essentially disenfranchised Americans, but it will be far better for their republic if those people are inside the system than outside it.

Second, it’s unclear just now why the Democratic party needs to be democratic in its operations anyway. It principally needs to be sure that its voters are rewarded, each according to his station in society, from the cash cow of government. For ‘crats and consultants, there is lots for their loyalty. For welfare recipients and disability claimants, there is just enough to live on, without working.

Average Americans might be just as well to vote for Hillary as to vote for the GOP donorcrats’ pick, who will export their jobs, fail to protect them, and openly despise them, all at the same time. Hill would only do the first two.

See also: Our American friend’s dispatches to day on the various GOP nomination contests, starting with

Our American Friend on the long, messy ground war till GOP Convention 2016

Tuesday’s slaughter (and working backward).

and

Our American friend on National Review’s full-on hatefest against the working class
(By the way, bunnies, this is big: U.S. conservative types speak about their potential base in a way that would get them charged with a hate crime if that base were mostly a visible minority group.)

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  • It ain’t over till the GOP sings!

    • What interests me, in the era of managed news, is that insiders expected Trump to lose Wisconsin. So if Dump Trump ends up portraying it to the base as D-Day at Normandy, they are not being straightforward with the base. Well, we shall see.

  • Drunk_by_Noon

    Trump was expected to lose Wisconson all along.
    This is Cruz’s high water mark and he stands a good chance of never winning another primary.
    Kasich will win Colorado on the 9th, and then everything else will be a Trump win.

    • The Butterfly

      Kasich is a douche.

  • mauser 98

    no bed of roses for Democrats either.. Bernie keeps winning , Hill gets delegates
    Bernie zombies will not go quiety
    Hill donors now associated with Panama Papers

  • simus1

    Trump will eventually need Cruz to be his guide to working within Washington’s tribal complexities. The fact that Cruz’s wife has big medicine as a local Texan poobah at Goldman Sachs doesn’t hurt either.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      Trump is going to have that if you can’t beat ’em join ’em advantage on his side.
      I know how it works.
      It’s how my wife and I got together.