Our American friend, the Political Animal, kindly writes to say:
Donald Trump won the Florida primary last night by overwhelming margins. The state’s junior senator, Marco Rubio, suspended his campaign, leaving a governor and another senator as the only opponents to Trump remaining in the race.
Trump went on to win Illinois and North Carolina. Missouri is very close still but it looks like another Trump win there as well. Ohio was won by its sitting governor John Kasich who couldn’t manage to get 50% of the vote.
Putting winner take all and the proportionate allocation rules together, Trump had impressive victories across the board. He will be the republican nominee unless the party straps on a suicide vest, something not out of the question given its penchant for stupidity.
A deal? Sure. Trump has been negotiating a deal with the American people in public for months and only now are some starting to realize that.
There exists in the cold light of day in the hungover offices of the consultant class a parlor game about how Trump is shy of the 1237 delegates needed for the nomination at the convention in Cleveland this July. It’s nonsense, of course, but some activity must be engaged in as they wait for their headaches to subside.
As many plausible scenarios exist in which Trump does receive the requisite number of delegates outright as those that show him coming up just shy. But that’s the point, really: if Trump is within 100 delegates of the magic number he will not be denied the nomination. Virtually every scenario shows that he will do that at a minimum. My own sense is that a deal will be made well in advance of the convention for Trump to win on the first ballot.
A deal? Sure. Trump has been negotiating a deal with the American people in public for months and only now are some starting to realize that. Because we’ve never seen an approach to politics before like the one Trump is employing, it’s been easy for the smart set to dismiss him as an entertainer and his supporters as rubes.
A French journalist that I follow on Twitter, Anne-Elisabeth Moutet, tweeted that Trump doesn’t have a party. I replied that actually he has half of two.
Yet state after state shows Trump has a broad and deep reach. The havoc that he’s wrecking with the Republican Party will soon occur in the Democratic Party, once he has secured the nomination. The smarter progressives that I follow were last night warning about their side underestimating his general election appeal. Correct.
A French journalist that I follow on Twitter, Anne-Elisabeth Moutet, tweeted that Trump doesn’t have a party. I replied that actually he has half of two. The general election campaign will be about bringing those two together in enough states to win in the Electoral College, having put certain states into play that are not usually so for republicans.
Hillary Clinton had an excellent night as well, essentially vanquishing her opponent Bernie Sanders. That race will play out in dribs and drabs but the Democrats have their nominee in the same fashion, albeit with less angst, as the Republicans. That the elites in both parties are today very unhappy is a good sign for those who wish to take their parties back from the donor class which captured them some time ago.
Political realignment happens rarely but it is happening in America. Only the broad outlines of what this looks like can be described as it happens. The finer points are currently obscured beneath the rubble and it will take some time for everything to sort itself out.
In the meantime, Trump will go into the general election to the left of Hillary Clinton on trade and foreign wars. He’ll be moderately to the right of her on most other issues. This is a huge and untapped demographic and it took the genius of an outsider like Trump to recognize it and seize it.
Clinton will run a traditional campaign but she won’t be effective in the new political landscape. She’s a genuinely terrible candidate in the flesh, with not only little appeal but a substantial repulsion factor. After 7 years of Obama, enough Americans are ready to take a chance on a successful businessman who is making a deal with them in the open.
Media attacks will be no more successful in the summer and fall than they have been against Trump in the primaries. Not only do Americans see in Trump a man who can deliver on a few solid issues, the details of which don’t really interest them, they also see in him a man who shares their deeply held loathing of the press. That combination has not been on offer before and Americans are rushing to buy, rightly fearful that such an offer will not come around again anytime soon.
Reality check: Many people in Canada are beginning to get it too. I dare to hope that looming euthanasia is playing a role. More later.
See also: Breaking, breaking!! Two ghosts of Hitler got into a row at a Trump rally, and Ghostbusters had to be called in to vacuum.)
See also: Our American friend: It’s not easy always being right on US primaries
The Political Animal on the Saturday slaughter
After South Carolina, Trump now sure to be GOP nominee?
Our American friend on the South Carolina debate
How US conservatives failed Trump supporters
Our American friend on last night in New Hampshire
American friend: After New Hampshire, nomination is still Trump’s to lose
The Political Animal: Trump in Iowa – the forest vs. the trees
Political Animal on US Conservatives going nuts hating Trump
My American friend on why the GOP must die For the United States to get on its feet again.
US middle class ready for a 3rd party? But why does it matter if they are? The reasons the middle class is declining are historical and structural. Today, the power and money will come from marketing the newly needy, often to struggle against each other in identity group conflicts.
The Political Animal assesses conservatives freaked re Trump
My American friend: More on why Trump will be prez
American political junkie friend explains why Trump will win
Why is Justin Trudeau Canada’s prime minister? (he asks) That’s what started this series off.