(Here’s his take on the debate, earlier.)
From our American friend:
Donald Trump won South Carolina last night to the dismay of the republican establishment.
In doing so, he became the party’s nominee. This will have to play out over the next month or so but there is no plausible route for the remaining major candidates to catch up and overtake him.
Nevada caucuses Tuesday and Trump will win that easily. A recent poll showed him at 49%.
March 1st and March 15th are multi-state contests where Trump will win almost every contest. Thepopular support simply isn’t there behind either Sen. Marco Rubio or Sen. Ted Cruz nor do either of these candidates have the money to remain effective.
I said in a previous post here that if Trump won South Carolina he’ll become the nominee. Nothing today changes that assessment. There’s much denial in the commentariat about how Rubio becomes viable enough and strong enough to stop Trump. David Frum, however, asked one simple question: which state does he win after he loses Nevada? To date on one has answered him.
The general election will be Trump v. Clinton and Trump will win.
President Trump? No, I’m not joking. And I think he could be a transformative one in the good sense.
I’m ahead of myself, of course, and we’ll have to see how events play out.
The title of this piece is from former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. My sense is that Trump has become a known unknown to the American voter. Will you get 100% with him? No, but people want him to deliver on a few major ideas and he seems increasingly poised to do just that.
This post is on the short side because I don’t like to repeat myself or inflate overly much any particular point.
South Carolina set the table, as the saying goes, for the balance of the race. Having done so, there’s really nothing more for interested observers to say or do than watch the March races unfold.
And, of course, marvel at the once in a political lifetime phenomenon known as Donald Trump.
Reality check: Doubtless our friend will tell us more about the sense in which Trump could be transformative. One hopes that he will at least spark some soul searching on both sides.
The GOP: It turns out that they can’t just use and laugh at the middle American voter, endangered by job loss to China and mass migration. Lame appeals to “solid American values” don’t work when the fortunes of the donor class were really built on the exploitation of cheap labour and enjoyed in part via the sweat of illegal immigrant servants. How could the GOP brass be so arrogantly stupid as to think no one had noticed?
The most telling comments came from conservative commentators bemused that evangelical Christians voted for godless Trump. Maybe that was the last signal they’ll get (before a serious upheaval) that committed Christians aren’t stupid enough to believe the GOP party brass thinks they matter.
What’s that you say? Trump doesn’t care about the committed Christians either? No, of course not. But they can use him to repay the people who pretended that they did care. Out of the debacle may come a new party that actually represents middle America, if that is possible. The GOP can keep their donor class, of course.
The Dems’ problems are slightly different. Bernie Sanders probably really does mean to confiscate wealth, and distribute it to supporters, etc. Clinton is in the middle, and may be forced to Sanders-ize, if president, in the event of a close vote.
Trump and Sanders represent two different futures for middle America: One is a high-risk attempt to restore what they had in say, the 1960s (most likely doomed). And the other is acceptance of a permanent welfare state, with deteriorating civil liberties as well as living standards. Fortunately, it is a choice they have the right to make, and the pressure to do it soon.
It’s good that the “borders” issue remains front and centre because borders are what define a nation state and give citizens their rights.
No wonder global-society progressives don’t like them.
How US conservatives failed Trump supporters
Our American friend on the South Carolina debate
Our American friend on last night in New Hampshire
American friend: After New Hampshire, nomination is still Trump’s to lose
The Political Animal: Trump in Iowa – the forest vs. the trees
Political Animal on US Conservatives going nuts hating Trump
My American friend on why the GOP must die For the United States to get on its feet again.
US middle class ready for a 3rd party? But why does it matter if they are? The reasons the middle class is declining are historical and structural. Today, the power and money will come from marketing the newly needy, often to struggle against each other in identity group conflicts.
The Political Animal assesses conservatives freaked re Trump
My American friend: More on why Trump will be prez
American political junkie friend explains why Trump will win
Why is Justin Trudeau Canada’s prime minister?