After South Carolina win, Trump now sure to be GOP nominee?

(Here’s his take on the debate, earlier.)

From our American friend:

Donald Trump won South Carolina last night to the dismay of the republican establishment.

In doing so, he became the party’s nominee. This will have to play out over the next month or so but there is no plausible route for the remaining major candidates to catch up and overtake him.

Nevada caucuses Tuesday and Trump will win that easily. A recent poll showed him at 49%.

March 1st and March 15th are multi-state contests where Trump will win almost every contest. Thepopular support simply isn’t there behind either Sen. Marco Rubio or Sen. Ted Cruz nor do either of these candidates have the money to remain effective.

I said in a previous post here that if Trump won South Carolina he’ll become the nominee. Nothing today changes that assessment. There’s much denial in the commentariat about how Rubio becomes viable enough and strong enough to stop Trump. David Frum, however, asked one simple question: which state does he win after he loses Nevada? To date on one has answered him.

The general election will be Trump v. Clinton and Trump will win.

President Trump? No, I’m not joking. And I think he could be a transformative one in the good sense.

I’m ahead of myself, of course, and we’ll have to see how events play out.

The title of this piece is from former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. My sense is that Trump has become a known unknown to the American voter. Will you get 100% with him? No, but people want him to deliver on a few major ideas and he seems increasingly poised to do just that.

This post is on the short side because I don’t like to repeat myself or inflate overly much any particular point.

South Carolina set the table, as the saying goes, for the balance of the race. Having done so, there’s really nothing more for interested observers to say or do than watch the March races unfold.

And, of course, marvel at the once in a political lifetime phenomenon known as Donald Trump.

Reality check: Doubtless our friend will tell us more about the sense in which Trump could be transformative. One hopes that he will at least spark some soul searching on both sides.

The GOP: It turns out that they can’t just use and laugh at the middle American voter, endangered by job loss to China and mass migration. Lame appeals to “solid American values” don’t work when the fortunes of the donor class were really built on the exploitation of cheap labour and enjoyed in part via the sweat of illegal immigrant servants. How could the GOP brass be so arrogantly stupid as to think no one had noticed?

The most telling comments came from conservative commentators bemused that evangelical Christians voted for godless Trump. Maybe that was the last signal they’ll get (before a serious upheaval) that committed Christians aren’t stupid enough to believe the GOP party brass thinks they matter.

What’s that you say? Trump doesn’t care about the committed Christians either? No, of course not. But they can use him to repay the people who pretended that they did care. Out of the debacle may come a new party that actually represents middle America, if that is possible. The GOP can keep their donor class, of course.

The Dems’ problems are slightly different. Bernie Sanders probably really does mean to confiscate wealth, and distribute it to supporters, etc. Clinton is in the middle, and may be forced to Sanders-ize, if president, in the event of a close vote.

Trump and Sanders represent two different futures for middle America: One is a high-risk attempt to restore what they had in say, the 1960s (most likely doomed). And the other is acceptance of a permanent welfare state, with deteriorating civil liberties as well as living standards. Fortunately, it is a choice they have the right to make, and the pressure to do it soon.

It’s good that the “borders” issue remains front and centre because borders are what define a nation state and give citizens their rights.

No wonder global-society progressives don’t like them.

See also:

How US conservatives failed Trump supporters

Our American friend on the South Carolina debate

Our American friend on last night in New Hampshire

American friend: After New Hampshire, nomination is still Trump’s to lose

The Political Animal: Trump in Iowa – the forest vs. the trees

Political Animal on US Conservatives going nuts hating Trump

My American friend on why the GOP must die For the United States to get on its feet again.

US middle class ready for a 3rd party? But why does it matter if they are? The reasons the middle class is declining are historical and structural. Today, the power and money will come from marketing the newly needy, often to struggle against each other in identity group conflicts.

The Political Animal assesses conservatives freaked re Trump

My American friend: More on why Trump will be prez

American political junkie friend explains why Trump will win


Why is Justin Trudeau Canada’s prime minister?

  • History suggests so, but as each nominee drops out he has to gain enough votes from their camps to succeed. I suspect a lot more money will flow with the next GOP establishment fave as well.

    • Yes, the establishment wants Rubio, it seems, and will try and buttress him.

  • Interesting, this Denyse O’Leary.

    • El Martyachi

      I know, right? An allowed-to-vote exception should be made in her case.

      • Definitely.

      • john s

        Really? Who are you figuring she would vote for?

      • dance…dancetotheradio

        My wife and daughter vote exactly as I tell them to.
        My son on the other hand has free will.

        • dance…dancetotheradio

          I was fucking kidding.

  • Clink9

    Hilarious. Now Glenn Beck is asking his followers to join him in a fast for Cruz.

    Feel the crazy!

  • Martin B

    If Cruz, who went all-out to get the Christian vote in SC, could only muster about 22% of the vote in a southern state, then he might be Attorney General Cruz one day, but not President Cruz.

  • Thinking From First Principles

    Americans who work for a living are sick and tired of watching the Republican establishment ship our jobs overseas. We all know it is much better to have slightly fewer, more expensive goods made in America so that Americans have jobs … instead of filling storage units with too much stuff most everybody owns. And we all know that legal (H1-B visa) and illegal immigration have only served to depress wages for native born Americans. I want to puke every time I hear the Republican talking heads describe things as “jobs Americans won’t do.” BollSheet! Americans rightly won’t do them at slave wages. Let the market work with wages rising to the point that Americans will choose those jobs!

    • Clausewitz

      Where have you been for the past seven years?

    • mauser 98

      the urban inner city jobless should pick the vegetables not Mexicans

      • Brett_McS

        Or teenagers looking for some extra cash, and learning the values of work in the process.

        • mauser 98

          Bummer has 45+million on food stamps

    • Most of those jobs may not exist in 30 years, but the people who do them will. Who supports them economically then? The same magnates who support open borders are automating their businesses while insulating themselves The GOP deserves to die for refusing to have an honest discussion about that.

  • terrence

    Another example of the old, and TRUE, adage that says, “The Democrat party is the EVIL party, and the Republican Party is the STUPID party.

  • Brett_McS

    I’m guessing that the Dems will treat Donald as a joke candidate and laugh him out of contention. There is plenty of material for them to draw on.

    • mauser 98

      not if Hill is wearing an orange jumpsuit

      • Brett_McS

        But she is already! I know, she’s doing that so the electorate won’t notice when it’s an official state-issued one, with a little number on it.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      Come on, man.
      How can they nominate anyone who won’t go after Hillary?
      He’s going to eat her like a dog after a rabbit.

    • I’m wondering if Trump will become an assassination target, if he is the nominee. The Dems were better off with the Used-to-Was GOP – but wouldn’t organize a hit because they’re in the business themselves. However, there could be a “Lee Harvey Oswald” among Bernie’s disgruntled fans if Bernie isn’t the nominee.

  • mauser 98

    if Cruz ,Rubio cut a deal for one to drop out their combined votes might beat Trump

    • Brett_McS

      That’s Rubio’s best chance, but he has lied so egregiously and so blatantly about Cruz I can’t see Cruz being interested. Which probably means a Trump nominee … which in turn means a Dem President.

      • dance…dancetotheradio

        Rubio is a polio.

    • john700

      Most of Cruz’s supporters would vote for Trump.

      • Brett_McS

        Are you kidding?

      • mauser 98

        yes it would not be an even split

      • Minicapt

        … therefore a Dem president …


    • Americans are at their worst when trying to make America great again. That said, I’m not sure that the beleaguered working and middle classes would be worse off with the Dems. The Dems will see to it that they don’t starve or go without pot as long as they have a vote to offer, because the Dems can always confiscate the wealth of the GOP donor class in the short run. Yes, in the long run, it’s the road to ruin. But the traditional classes are ruined anyway until they have a political party that actually represents them and can gain control of their borders as a first step.

  • Barrington Minge

    Sitting here in the UK, we are horrified by the choices being offered to the American people for their next President.
    Trump. A loudmouth billionaire. Where are his political credentials? Likely result – all out war in the Middle East.
    Clinton. As corrupt as they come. Yet to achieve anything of note. Likely result – one scandal after another bringing a great nation down.
    Wake up America, it is almost too late.