American political junkie friend explains why Trump will win

My friend (the one who asked, Why is Justin Trudeau Canada’s prime minister?) lives and breathes U.S. politics.

I asked him just after the Republican debate what he thought would happen down there, and this is his view:

Trump will win the republican nomination outright.

Cruz is finished as of last night’s debate. He attacked Trump for having “New York values” and was destroyed when Trump played the 9-11 card. It was astonishing. See video link below. The birth/citizenship is an issue designed simply to cast doubt in advance of the Iowa caucuses. Polling is showing it is effective.

After debating last night in South Carolina, Trump flew to Des Moines Iowa for an in person appearance on “Morning Joe,” the single most influential liberal news/politics show in America (it runs three hours). He got little sleep and is almost 70. Impressive. Trump does not drink and never has. He’s literally lead a sober life. His kids don’t drink either. I think this is important.

The liberal, usually Manhattan based, hosts fawned over him. I was amazed and appalled. I support Trump but it’s always cringe inducing when media fawn over anyone.

Cruz is a one state guy: it’s Iowa or bust. If he comes in second, he goes nowhere. Trump can “afford” to lose Iowa even though he’s putting time and resources into the state. Yet at the same time he’s managing expectations very well.

His campaign rented out the largest theater in Des Moines and is giving away tickets to “13 Hours,” a mainstream produced recitation of what happened in Benghazi. Obama and Clinton are never mentioned. Both the movie and Trump’s packing the theater for free showings border on the brilliant. Why aren’t life long overpaid consultants coming up with renting out a theater?

This man has never run for office before, let alone President. He’s in the process of transforming American politics and even though I’m Irish, I’m not engaging in hyperbole.

The (female) head of one of the largest public sector unions recently fretted out loud that he was enormously popular among her members. Indeed.

Increasingly pundits on the left are saying that he could beat Hillary.

He will. He’s the next President of the United States and the American political system (in the sense of the parties, donors, operatives & compliant media) will never be the same again.

Those who insist Trump isn’t a traditional conservative utterly miss the zeitgeist: he’s not and most people don’t give a tinker’s damn.

Trump has toned down some of the earlier flamboyance but without a loss of strength.

Americans are desperate to be rescued from Obama and the oppressive political correct culture of the last 7 years. People genuinely want America to be great again.

All the old ways of political analysis are out the window: where is his 47 page plan on energy? His 29 page plan on transportation? His 124 page plan on something something New American Foreign Policy?

He wants to tax hedge fund managers who pay only 15% on tens and hundreds of millions. Who in the mainstream political narrative had heard of the “carried interest deduction” before Trump?

Virtually no one.

Finally, controlling immigration cannot be underestimated. I’ve said that issue was the fuel which launched his rocket when he announced. It continues to this day.

He packs tens of thousands into stadiums under all kinds of weather conditions and with long lines because he has Secret Service protection. The most pathetic establishment conventional wisdom disparages those people by saying they’ll show up for a freak show but won’t vote.

And they wonder why they’re hated?

Don’t forget: Trump has thoroughly renounced the wars in Iraq and, to a lesser degree, Afghanistan.

Marco Rubio thinks we should have ground troops in Syria. What? The American people are quite done with foreign wars for the foreseeable future.

Trump is winning because the silent majority of people here really want America to be great again. Occam’s razor.

He suggests that one see: Cruz attack on Trump’s NY values & response.


Morning Joe (Joe Scarborough) expresses astonishment at Trump’s crowd in his home town of Pensacola Florida:

  • Drunk_by_Noon

    For those that still do not “get Trump” please read and believe these things, at the very least.

    “The (female) head of one of the largest public sector unions recently fretted out loud that he was enormously popular among her members.” Those are CORE DEMS he’s stealing from Hillary.

    “Those who insist Trump isn’t a traditional conservative utterly miss the zeitgeist: he’s not and most people don’t give a tinker’s damn.” Conservative enough is good enough. Where are all of those web fags telling us to be “pragmatic” about the front runner now?

    “He’s the next President of the United States and the American political system (in the sense of the parties, donors, operatives & compliant media) will never be the same again.” Yes, Trump is expected to ‘change everything’ as much as Reagan did.

    “Trump is winning because the silent majority of people here really want America to be great again. Occam’s razor.” This.

    • Certainly the Americans do, unlike the White House.

      • Drunk_by_Noon

        If Trump needs an “October Surprise” he should promise investigations and trials, and if convicted. “severe punishment” for many members of the Obama and Bush administrations.

        That would put him over the top.

        • mauser 98

          Roger Stone has book coming out on Jeb
          Silverado S&L , Saudis ..lotsa dirt he says
          has also Clintons War on Women.. rape , terror

          • Drunk_by_Noon

            The Silverado S&L implosion is the gift that keeps on giving.

        • V10_Rob

          I’d say toss in some of the major financial actors of the 2008 crash. They’re tied up in both those administrations and their policies, they almost certainly hate Trump’s platform, and going after them could steal some significant votes from Occupy Wall Street types. Tell them: “Clinton mouths the words, but she’s not going to turn on her aristocratic friends. Trump is a horrible person, but he means it.”

        • Bingo, bingo, bingo.

      • john700

        Hussein Obama doesn’t seem to ingest too much alcohol (likely due to his religion), but he’s still a stupid commie.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      One of the reasons that Trump is winning is because he’s been on television for ten years showing people how he makes decisions.

      • Drunk_by_Noon

        Au contraire mon ami, if anything that was a slight negative.
        No, what put him over the top was his promise to build the wall and deport Mexicans.
        That’s what put him in the lead and kept him there.
        The TV stuff only mattered because people knew who he was, but people in America have known of him since the mid 1980’s.
        I never saw any of his TV shows.

    • mauser 98
    • Billy Bob Thornton

      Trump by his actions is considered a populist but can be considered nationalist by his speeches.

      Many people throughout history have tried to run for both the Democrats and Republicans as nationalists but have failed because they have not had the monetary support or the deep pockets to continue.

      Traditionalist conservatism can even mean returning to the roots that existed for the party of the past. He is calling for the protection of Christians, anti-abortion measures and that would define him as a slight social conservative and conservative based on those reasons.

      As for economic policy, Trump is not very specific about if he is massively globalist or economic nationalist.

      He only speaks about his business experience but that suggests that he is pro-business and would probably still be for the same measures done under different presidents and recent presidents.

      What the US needs more than just a fresh face is clearly a discussion and a serious discussion about how the US can rebuild its middle class without the left-right nonsense. I seriously believe the US does not have much time left, and the same with Western economies.

      Since Jan. 1st, markets have not been too good and there has been a lot of volatility!

  • Tom Forsythe

    Trump has a strong chance of picking up a lot of blue states, and will get more of the black vote than any Republican since 1964.

  • Brett_McS

    I like what Trump has done in the primaries. There is one problem though: He believes none of it himself, and will do none of it in office, and I doubt he will even try. Which makes even the Governator level of disappointment the low bar for his supporters.

    • V10_Rob

      Entirely possible.

      I see Trump as a socio-political doomsday device. His function is to identify and rain death on the PC progressive bullshit that has crippled Western society for years. He won’t destroy it completely, but he shows everyone that it’s a paper tiger, a phantom only as strong as we imagine it to be.

      Anything Trump accomplishes beyond that is a bonus. From the ashes we will hopefully see the rise of competent conservative leaders who no longer fear their own shadow or cringe at being called names, who stick to their convictions and tell the ‘expert’ consultants and presstitutes to take a hike.

      • Brett_McS

        I see him, once in office, reverting to his liberal democrat, crony-capitalist roots. That’s not a win for America or the rest of us.

        • V10_Rob

          As opposed to some other liberal democrat crony-capitalist in office? Worst case scenario, nothing changes.

          • Brett_McS

            I could think of a lot of things worse than Ted Cruz.

          • Billy Bob Thornton

            And the sad part is many believe a flat tax will be the salvation when societies like Russia and China that are growing are state capitalist. What Cruz wants is more corporatism because there is nothing about raising the really low disposable incomes, tackling the high unemployment, tackling those that have fallen beneath the cracks, and it is more laissez faire or hands off policies, which the US had with George W. Bush. Obama continued much of the same policies of Bush because they have kept the free trade nonsense and tax rates for small business were lowered under Obama with slightly more regulations and Obamacare. That alone wouldn’t be enough to stop growth. It has been stated that corporations are sitting on trillions of dollars from the financial crisis. Still, the US is racing to the bottom. Crony capitalism is part of any economic system. Anyone that argues otherwise is simply wanting to starve the economy of government spending. Infrastructure and spending for vital programs is not crony capitalism but part of the economy.

          • Billy Bob Thornton

            To me, anyone can promise flowers and unicorns. The US is third world despite what the Democrats and Republicans argue. The US needs full-fledged and anti-mainstream restructuring.

          • V10_Rob

            Unless the politician’s friend owns the construction company that is going to build that infrastructure.

            I’ve got no problem with infrastructure projects, or plowing it in to research that may not yield results. But crony-capitalism is not going to be cured by replacing it with crony-socialism.

  • canminuteman

    I agree with the analysis. I don’t know whether he will be a great president or a terrible president, but I really don’t see the makings of a great president in any of the candidates.

  • luna

    Dr. Ben Carson: CAIR Wants ‘Civilization Jihad’ To ‘Destroy Us From Within’

  • Ron MacDonald

    Trump will probably get the union vote, I believe him when he says jobs will be coming back to the U.S..

  • moraywatson

    The only thing between Trump and the Republican nomination for President, is ballot box corruption. The political establishment is a YUUUGE power hungry, money fueled, industry, and Trump would owe it next to nothing if he wins. The RNC and the Republican establishment will not put America’s interests ahead of their own, so expect them to get dirty.

    • Minicapt

      The problem is that Trump is deeply Establishment. He makes several odd-ball statement and suddenly he’s Paladin riding to cleanup the town. Unfortunately, he didn’t amass his ‘huge’ fortune on his own, he did it by cultivating and expanding his father’s rolodex, and learning the skills of city or state political operation.


      • Bataviawillem

        That last statement is b.s.
        It takes a very competent person to grow 400 mil. to 10 bil.
        Most private companies die with there founder.

        • Minicapt

          Next time, try reading a bit about the “Trump phenomenon” background. By the way, Jimmie Pattison started with a figurative $10 in his pocket, and is now worth twice as much as DonJohn.


          • Bataviawillem

            What did I miss.

  • jack burns

    What its about is 8 years of an affirmative action traitor in office and the damage that he’s done. Its also about liberal arrogance.

  • Brett_McS

    Hmmm, it’s doesn’t seem that the Metropolitan New York Republicans – you know, the guys and gals from New York, New York that will actually vote in the primaries – think that Trump won the debate:

  • jack burns

    Its not about admiring Trump the person its about confidence in Trump the manager. The MSM wants people to believe that his followers are all undereducated hicks. Good. Confusion to the enemy.

  • mauser 98

    what if Cruz was born in Kenya?

    Huma for VP!!

  • Morticiaa

    One can only hope this will be the outcome
    Can you imagine the first meeting he has to endure
    With that dumkauf trudeau

    • Morticiaa


      • Maggat

        Dumkauf or dummkopf, who cares, they’re both the same.

  • Brett_McS
  • It certainly looks like Trump’s popularity is surging and he has a chance of getting the nomination and winning the election. It would certainly be a relief if he prevents Horrible Hillary from coming to power.