My friend (the one who asked, Why is Justin Trudeau Canada’s prime minister?) lives and breathes U.S. politics.
I asked him just after the Republican debate what he thought would happen down there, and this is his view:
Trump will win the republican nomination outright.
Cruz is finished as of last night’s debate. He attacked Trump for having “New York values” and was destroyed when Trump played the 9-11 card. It was astonishing. See video link below. The birth/citizenship is an issue designed simply to cast doubt in advance of the Iowa caucuses. Polling is showing it is effective.
After debating last night in South Carolina, Trump flew to Des Moines Iowa for an in person appearance on “Morning Joe,” the single most influential liberal news/politics show in America (it runs three hours). He got little sleep and is almost 70. Impressive. Trump does not drink and never has. He’s literally lead a sober life. His kids don’t drink either. I think this is important.
The liberal, usually Manhattan based, hosts fawned over him. I was amazed and appalled. I support Trump but it’s always cringe inducing when media fawn over anyone.
Cruz is a one state guy: it’s Iowa or bust. If he comes in second, he goes nowhere. Trump can “afford” to lose Iowa even though he’s putting time and resources into the state. Yet at the same time he’s managing expectations very well.
His campaign rented out the largest theater in Des Moines and is giving away tickets to “13 Hours,” a mainstream produced recitation of what happened in Benghazi. Obama and Clinton are never mentioned. Both the movie and Trump’s packing the theater for free showings border on the brilliant. Why aren’t life long overpaid consultants coming up with renting out a theater?
This man has never run for office before, let alone President. He’s in the process of transforming American politics and even though I’m Irish, I’m not engaging in hyperbole.
The (female) head of one of the largest public sector unions recently fretted out loud that he was enormously popular among her members. Indeed.
Increasingly pundits on the left are saying that he could beat Hillary.
He will. He’s the next President of the United States and the American political system (in the sense of the parties, donors, operatives & compliant media) will never be the same again.
Those who insist Trump isn’t a traditional conservative utterly miss the zeitgeist: he’s not and most people don’t give a tinker’s damn.
Trump has toned down some of the earlier flamboyance but without a loss of strength.
Americans are desperate to be rescued from Obama and the oppressive political correct culture of the last 7 years. People genuinely want America to be great again.
All the old ways of political analysis are out the window: where is his 47 page plan on energy? His 29 page plan on transportation? His 124 page plan on something something New American Foreign Policy?
He wants to tax hedge fund managers who pay only 15% on tens and hundreds of millions. Who in the mainstream political narrative had heard of the “carried interest deduction” before Trump?
Virtually no one.
Finally, controlling immigration cannot be underestimated. I’ve said that issue was the fuel which launched his rocket when he announced. It continues to this day.
He packs tens of thousands into stadiums under all kinds of weather conditions and with long lines because he has Secret Service protection. The most pathetic establishment conventional wisdom disparages those people by saying they’ll show up for a freak show but won’t vote.
And they wonder why they’re hated?
Don’t forget: Trump has thoroughly renounced the wars in Iraq and, to a lesser degree, Afghanistan.
Marco Rubio thinks we should have ground troops in Syria. What? The American people are quite done with foreign wars for the foreseeable future.
Trump is winning because the silent majority of people here really want America to be great again. Occam’s razor.
He suggests that one see: Cruz attack on Trump’s NY values & response.
Morning Joe (Joe Scarborough) expresses astonishment at Trump’s crowd in his home town of Pensacola Florida: