Russia’s War Plan in Syria

“…The obvious immediate operational goals of the offensive include defeat and dispersal of the armed opposition groups in the northern and northeastern parts of Syria, as well as extermination of the opposition-controlled enclaves in the central part of regime-controlled zone between Homs and Hama – four in five Russian air strikes are concentrated in precisely those two areas. Re-establishing Damascus’s control over the territory currently controlled by Kurds is not the part of the plan as there is no Russian activity in that zone. Securing the eastern border of regime-controlled territory is also a task: the approximately 20 per cent of air strikes devoted to targets in the narrow sector around Palmyra – the only area where Daesh forces immediately contact with regime troops – indicate this. Taking into account the narrow area of contact between Daesh and regime forces, one can conclude that fighting the jihadist group is only a secondary task of the Syrian–Russian–Iranian coalition. Other nationalist and Islamist armed opposition seem to be the major targets of Russian strikes; Daesh forces serve as a secondary target, and a way to legitimate Russia’s actions.”

  • pdxnag

    But what is the fractional degree of difference between one Wahhabi militant and another Wahhabi militant? They are all part of the same franchise and compete for donations from the same set of donors.

    Gratuitous purely religious slaughter might even be a distraction from the geo-political goal of Saudi Arabia to have an exclusively Sunni controlled region to run an oil pipeline toward their colonies in Europe. ISIS might be, in part, a sideshow attraction.

    • One day we may learn who is pulling the strings.

      • pdxnag

        Maybe President Valerie Jarrett will explain it all in her memoir, when she is old and just about to kick the bucket.

      • Cat-astrophe

        We will have to wait for the winner for that…..the winner always writes the history.

  • Norman_In_New_York

    Notice how Russia has tiptoed around Israel and the Kurds,,,,,,,

  • I believe this has been apparent since the beginning.

  • dance…dancetotheradio

    I don’t think Assad ever wanted to be the leader.
    He is the Michael Corleone of Syria after his brother Sonny died.

  • Ho Hum

    Syria Update# Air Duel between the Sukhoi Su – 30 Russian SM and Israeli F-15


    EXCLUSIVE-Strategika 51: Six Russian fighter jets type Multirole Sukhoi SU – 30 SM have intercepted 4 Israeli McDonnell Douglas F-15’s fighter bombers attempting to infiltrate the Syrian coast.The Israeli F 15 warplanes have been flying over Syrian airspace for months and in particular the coast of Latakia, which is now the bridgehead of the Russian forces in Syria.

    The Israeli jets would generally follow a fairly complex flight plan and approach Latakia from the sea

    On the night of 1 October 02, 2015, six Sukhoi SU-30 Russian SM fighters took off from the Syrian Hmimim airbase in the direction of Cyprus, before changing course and intercepting the four Israeli F-15 fighters off the coast of Syria, that were flying in attack formation.

    Surprised by a situation as unexpected and probably not prepared for a dogfight with one of the best Russian multipurpose fighters, Israeli pilots have quickly turned back South at high speed over the Lebanon.

    The Lebanese army has officially announced at 2313 Z (local time) that four “enemy aircraft” (Israeli) had crossed the airspace of the Lebanon.

    This ‘incident’ between the Russian and Israeli combat aircraft struck with amazement the command of the Israeli air force, which has estimated that a possible dogfight between F-15 Israelis and the Russian Su-30 would have led to the destruction of the four aircraft Israelis.

    Israel has strongly protested to Moscow of the incident but the Russians demanded explanations about the presence of Israeli military aircraft in full Syrian airspace.

    This incident indicates that the protection of Syrian airspace is now under the protection of the Russian air weapon. What causes gnashing of teeth in Washington.

    The incident has been ignored by major news agencies but relays political and media of Israel in the United States, Europe and in the Arab world will redouble their efforts to demonize the Russian support for the Syrian Government.

    • FactsWillOut

      Perhaps the Israeli’s can coordinate with the Russians.

      Of course, diplomatically, that puts them at odds with NATO/EU/US.
      Now, should Israel decide to actually force a Hamas surrender in Gaza, old-school, who’s opinions exactly do they have to worry about? Who are Israel’s true friends? Those who would not condone Israel’s utter conquest and subjugation of Hamas held territory?

      The Arab-Israeli war is winnable, but to win a war requires 2 things:
      1. The military means to do so (Israel has this).
      2. The will to use the means.

      So, why is it that Israel seems to lack the will? Is it because of her “friends” aka the west? With friends like that….

    • marty_p

      I wonder if had the IAF planes been F16’s the Israeli pilots would have had better odds in a dogfight.