Star poll shows NDP in lead… sorta

34% for the NDP 29% Conservative and 28% for the Airhead.

It’s virtually a statistical 3 way tie.

Do you recall that Labour was expected to win in Great Britain?

The “Shy Conservatives” made a hash of the pollsters predictions.

The Globe has a decent article on the declining reliability of polling;

Margin of error

Gauging voter intentions has never been easy, but after several spectacular recent flops, Canada’s pollsters are trying to return the industry to its once credible predictor of public opinion

  • David Murrell

    The national results on October 19th will reflect the Alberta election result, writ large. The NDP is going to win. We can debunk the polls today, just like people debunked the polls in Alberta — which had the NDP in the lead — going into that election.

    The Conservatives have had it. I will be voting Conservative, but let’s fact it, the Duffy affair is bad; the corporate media are exploiting it in order to defeat Harper, and that is that. There are too many things working against a Conservative victory. Too many.

    • I do hope you are wrong David.

    • Clink9

      Only losers stay on the phone with pollsters. They get rich talking to the shut ins of the world.

      • dance…dancetotheradio

        I lie to pollsters or shut them down.
        Hey, Angus Reid, my phone number is 1-600-Fuc-koff.
        It’s a satellite phone.
        I’m so ronery.

        • Clink9

          That’s all they’ve heard from me …… cuulick.

          • dance…dancetotheradio

            cuulickuulah hah ah aha ha ha.

          • Clink9


            Mele Kaaaaaaalikimaka


      • Exile1981

        I live in Alberta and back in 2009 a polling company was calling all the 403 area code to ask if I though Obama was doing a good job s a US president. The pollster thought they were calling Florida. I don’t have any faith in these polls anymore.

      • kkruger71

        Only ever had one pollster call in my life, shortly after Harris left office, stopped the call about 4 minutes in. What I found so frustrating was all the questions were either yes or no, either/or, or rate agreement/importance of the following statement from 1-10. Every question I listened to was based on a false premise. Stuff like “Which is more important to have increased in the next budget, welfare or broader social programs?”, with no option to pick neither.

        • canminuteman

          I like to talk to pollsters, and because I do talk to them, they seem to call regularly. You are absolutely right about the questions they ask though. I think they could take the data they collect and then present it to whoever contracted them to do the poll in whatever manner they want.

          • kkruger71

            Oh the lady on the phone was very polite, and understood my frustration. But yeah, like in the question I related she said “Well, just pick the one you would prefer.” Of course that would lead to results they could point to and say “70% of people want an increase in welfare rates”.

    • Bernie

      Don’t shoot until you see the ” Whites of their Eyes”. In other words, the Polls can be manipulated to influence voters. The only real Poll that counts is the final Election Day. Remember the “X” files? Trust no one!

      • Exile1981

        Or we will see the NDP and the liberals form a coalition even if they loose.

      • David Murrell

        There could be a “Reagan effect”, which happened in the 1980 U.S. presidential election. Conservative voters either lied or refused to answer poll questions — and going into election day Reagan and Carter were tied in the polls. But Ronald Reagan won in a landslide. However in this case it appears that the fix is in, and the media are going to hand the powers of government to the NDP/Liberals. That’s that.

    • terrence

      Just like the “polls” predicted the NON Democratic Party would win the BC election by a LANDSLIDE. Then spent several days trying to explain why they were “off” – I do recall any of them saying they were WRONG!

  • Maurixio Garciasanchez

    Let’s hope for the best and say good bye to your leader,we will see a clean up in Parliament Hill .

    • Clink9

      Ha ha ha ha ha !

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      I know, mulcair is such a cringe worthy douche bag.

      • Maurixio Garciasanchez

        The more you hate him the more support he will get.

    • Justin St.Denis

      Maurixio, has the U.S. government contacted you? They are about to acquiesce to your request. You may I deed receive the International Patent on Stupid.

      Happy now?

      • Maurixio Garciasanchez

        Your mom toll me that because I didn’t pay for the blow she gave me.

        • Justin St.Denis

          Maurixio, that is unlikely. My mother died some three decades ago, and you are apparently 14 years old. And very stupid.

    • Clausewitz

      The Def had the ultimate idea of what to do about polls. His opinion was, “The only one who knows what to do with a pole is a dog”. The Liberals were way ahead in the polls right before Diefenbaker formed the largest conservative majority at that time.

      • Maurixio Garciasanchez

        Some time the polls predict what might happen.

  • barryjr

    Polls are for the media to have something to talk about and campaign managers to use to justify their positions. There is no base in reality as recent elections have shown so why do people even care?

    • Clausewitz

      When did the MSM stop reporting the news only to prognosticate opinion?

  • Waffle

    IMHO, the Comments in the Globe to this piece are scarier than usual.

    Interesting that language used in the polls/surveys was never mentioned. English (or French) as a first language is declining but I don’t know how much. Literacy is not what it used to be. Even among native English speakers, the drop in literacy — just understanding basic English, nothing fancy — is frightening.

  • andycanuck

    A liberal, Anglo cousin of mine from Quebec didn’t know if the NDP would do well in Quebec again contra the Libs but he said the Bloc isn’t going to make it back from the wilderness, which is the vote splitting I was hoping for.

    I don’t know about the polling but I can’t see anyone who voted Conservative in the last election changing their vote or staying home this time. (Unlike American voters saying “screw the RINOs” in the States.)

  • ontario john

    Because what Canada needs, is a French national as PM.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      I’ll relinquish my French citizenship when you elect me.
      I promise that you’ll just have to trust me.

    • Clausewitz

      He’s not a French National, but a blouse wearing poodle walker, or a cheese eating surrender monkey.

  • Norman_In_New_York

    It has become much more difficult to conduct accurate polls in recent years because of the proliferation of electronic media, such as Facebook and Iphones. In the U.S., a federal law prohibits the cold calling of cell phones.

  • cmh

    just shows you what garbage science polls really are…

  • dance…dancetotheradio

    Star Poll and only two months to go.
    I am sooo convinced.