The UK government has statistics on babies born in England and Wales, by country of the mother‘s birth. There is little point looking at mothers born in the UK, since so many of them are of foreign descent already.
But the statistics are interesting nevertheless. Because so many Poles have moved to the UK, they are at present in #1 spot in total babies born to non-UK mothers. They are slightly ahead of the Pakistanis.
A visual chart of this can be seen here.
But they also provide another item: an estimated Total Fertility Rate (TFR). This is the number of children born to a woman over her lifetime. If the TFR for a group is 2 (or slightly higher allowing for a few deaths) the population replaces itself. If it is less than 2, the population shrinks.
They have estimated the TFRs for the various countries, based on their data. This is a commonly used statistic. It is included in the useful CIA World Factbook, for example. (In poor countries, one must also remember that many children do not live to grow up, but this is not the case in the UK. Muslims are breeding as if they expect a high death rate, but, thanks to the generosity of the UK, it is not the case).
We already know that the TFRs for native Europeans and their descendants in North America, Australia and New Zealand are below 2.0, just as we know that the TFRs for Muslims tend to be above 2.0.
I have downloaded their Excel spreadsheet (available on their government site) and done some calculations: namely, what will the population of the next two generations be, assuming those TFRs continue to hold. Of course, they may not, but at present, we can see no reversal of the trend.
The calculation is simple: assume half the babies are female and multiply this number by the TFR. Here is what I found:
Blue: TFR between 2-3. Green: TFR over 3. Beige: TFR less than 2.
So, the Poles will fall behind within one generation. In two generations, they are well in the minority.
Another factor that comes into play is the length of a “generation.” This depends on the age at which mothers start having children. As we know, the Muslims start much younger, so their generations are shorter and this makes things even worse! (I have not included this in the above calculation because I have no data for it).
Another thing to note, especially for those countries with small numbers of birth, like Kenya, is that the TFR may reflect the fact that these are the “elites” of the that country. Elites tend to be educated and educated women have fewer children. The TFR for Kenya itself is 3.76, according to the CIA World Factbook.
However, for countries like Pakistan, the UK has clearly imported many, many non-elites. In fact, their TFR in Pakistan is given as 2.96 in the Factbook, so the better healthcare in the UK is allowing them to even more children than they would have had at home.