David Goldman aka Spengler: Islamic Civilization is Dying
“Mr. Goldman opened his talk by highlighting the widespread disappointment with the deterioration of the “Arab Spring” into an Islamist resurgence. He cautioned that the U.S. must learn to live with instability, as nothing in its power would enable it to stabilize the Middle East, yet noted that this was not necessarily the end of the world; Ronald Reagan was able to exploit it for the national interest in the case of the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.
Rather than focus on Islamism and its conflict with modernity as chief culprit for this instability, Mr. Goldman pointed to the massive decline in Muslim birthrates attending the growing education of women. Iranian women, for example, used to bear 7 children on average; now the rate has fallen to 1.5, with the most highly educated subgroup approaching a fertility rate of 1.0. Such an inverted population pyramid means that fewer and fewer young people will be forced to support a growing but aging populace. This is not some pipe dream of Western demographers; President Ahmadinejad himself has called the decision by Iranian youth not to have children an act of genocide against the Iranian nation.”