Wishful thinking versus poll results

Be very careful how the polls are reported, most such as this report, do not make mention of the fact that when you begin parsing the total of respondents into subsets, in this case “all decided voters” and those “certain to vote”, that the margin for error increases dramatically – i.e. in the range of 10-15% or even greater.

That is way too high a margin of error to be taken seriously. Recall the Toronto mayoralty race, which Ford won by a landslide, despite numerous polls predicting a neck and neck race. Here too I suspect they are reporting nothing more than wishful thinking.

Here’s a Compas poll predicting a Tory Majority: Tories, 46%; NDP, 26%; Grits, 17%; Bloc, 7%; Greens, 4%.

Amazing isn’t it? All over the map. We may as well be reading horoscopes and consulting entrails. Though I admit I prefer the Compas entrails.

h/t EyeCrazy

Another angle on the Whorehouse Jack Layton story.