Statisticians Warn Of “Systemic Mainstream Misinformation” In Poll Data

If you recently glanced at the polls and the election markets, then you would be forgiven to believe that a landslide election is looming.  It’s likely not, and the spreads have the potential to revert in surprising ways between now and Election Day.  The drumbeat of negative news against Donald Trump may not cause further damage.  We’ve discussed numerously, starting on October 11 and October 12, that Hillary Clinton’s runaway spread would revert (here, here, here, here).

Of course that’s a stand taken against a popular headwind, but also an opportunity to make money on an election bet that is mispriced. 

  • Well, the polls were certainly wrong about Rob Ford (and Stephen Harper for that matter when he got his majority). They were off by as much as 10 or 20 points in some cases. But that’s what happens when the Media acts as propaganda outlets — they often set themselves up for embarrasing surprises.

  • Jay Currie

    The polls are likely to be wrong here as they were in Brexit. And for many of the same reasons. Underestimating working class anger and turnout and miscounting shy Trump voters.

    Plus, such support as Hilly has is more than a little soft. Black people walked tall to the polls to vote for Obama… For Hilly, not so much.

    Final point, a lot can and will happen in the next three weeks. More gropies will suddenly remember the 80s. Wiki will keep leaking. An FBI agent or two may break cover.

    It will be very, very interesting.