china plunge

China Will Probably Implode

In July of 2001, Gordon Chang predicted an inevitable meltdown of the Chinese Communist Party in his best-selling book The Coming Collapse of China. Since then, China’s economy has increased by more than eightfold, to surpass even the United States on a purchasing parity power basis. Oops?

In Chang’s defense, he could not have anticipated the colossal blunder of President Bill Clinton and a Republican Congress in paving China’s ruthlessly mercantilist way into the World Trade Organization just five months after his book was published. That mother of all unfair trade deals—a well-deserved target of both the Sanders and Trump presidential campaigns—kept China’s Great Walls of Protectionism largely intact. However, it also opened U.S. markets to a flood of illegally subsidized Chinese imports, and catalyzed the offshoring of millions of American manufacturing jobs.

  • Drunk_by_Noon

    Of course they are going to implode.
    They cook their books, adulterat their own food, build ghost cities and factories running at almost idle, and the list goes on, and on,
    They are ignoring reality, and that always has a price.

    • It’s gonna get very ugly over there.

    • Maurixio Garciasanchez

      Plus they copyright the local corporations,spying,etc.

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      There’s a math problem that makes China’s need for war inevitable.
      Wikisay under one child policy:
      ‘According to a report by the National Population and Family Planning Commission, there will be 30 million more men than women in 2020, potentially leading to social instability, and courtship-motivated emigration.[67]’
      I believe that number is too low.
      But, if you take it at face value it implies there are at least 30 million surplus men available for military action.
      And the Chinese state is going to need an external enemy to galvanize and distract from domestic problems.

      • Drunk_by_Noon

        Or they could just turn them into asexual Japanese males.
        Maybe video games will save China?
        They might have a surplus of males, but those males have families who are really much more protective of the sole surviving male walking retirement plan than they were in 1951.
        I say the Chineese can’t even “war” their way out of this one.
        I say violent, chaotic, totally uncontrolled implosion, with unpredictable results.
        I also say their end does not come for another 15-20 years.

  • Martin B

    A hundred million Chinese will flee to Canada when it does.

    • Alain

      I would truly find that a great improvement of the bulk of what is being mass imported.

  • Norman_In_New_York

    What this says is that you can’t fool all the people all of the time. I know people who absolutely won’t buy any Chinese food products over fears of contamination.

    • Daviddowntown

      I’ve heard of chinese tourists in Canada who stock up on baby food before returning to China.

      • Drunk_by_Noon

        And all sorts of baby products from powder to diapers, to clothing.
        You really have something where Chineese baby clothing is giving children chemical burns.

        • dance…dancetotheradio

          When I was a kid with my first job more than thirty years ago I bought a football shirt from Kmart.
          There was something wrong with it because it gave me a contact rash all over my upper body.
          I never bought clothes from Kmart again.

    • Alain

      I also avoid them and wish I could do the same with non food items, but just about every bloody thing is made in China.

      • dance…dancetotheradio

        There’s gotta be someone somewhere who is willing to start an online place where we can get the quality we want to pay for.

  • In Chang’s defense, he under-estimated the Chinese’s ability to obfuscate.

    • Alain

      I suggest it is more an ability of communists than just Chinese.

  • bverwey

    The chickens have come home to roost. All well laid out in current US election talking points of late. It is only a question of when and obviously is every other country immune to the blow back.

  • vimy

    If China needs a war there is always North Korea.