Nominating Donald Trump will wreck the Republican Party as we know it. Not nominating Trump will wreck the Republican Party as we know it. The sooner everyone recognizes this fact, the better.
There are only three possible ways to avoid a calamitous walkout. Ted Cruz can win the nomination outright before the convention. That’s very unlikely given that he’d need to win roughly 80 percent of all the remaining delegates.
Second, Trump could reveal he has a hidden reservoir of magnanimity and patriotism, and rally his faithful to the consensus nominee. Stop laughing.
Third, the delegates could pick someone sufficiently attractive that Trump followers get over their understandable bitterness and support that candidate despite Trump’s objections. Who would that be? Certainly not Mitt Romney. Maybe a reanimated Ronald Reagan. Or Batman? I have no idea. More.
Reality check: Seen from Ottawa on the eve of a late spring snowstorm, here’s what the problem looks like:
I don’t see how the GOP elite will ever govern again.
It’s not about Trump. It’s about the fact that the elite didn’t expect the revolt in his favor. They didn’t know how desperate their base is, how little they themselves are trusted, or what is going on in the United States generally, outside their walled compounds.
Why should anyone vote for the donor-approved candidate if the donorcrats couldn’t see this coming?
My own view from north of the border is that a new political party is essential now; the only alternative would be dozens of fragmenting coalitions.
Hill Clinton is surely in a much stronger position. She knows what her supporters want (money from the government to sustain standards of living not justified by their work, along with coercive public support for lifestyles not justified by reason or experience).
And she intends to give them what they want, probably in part through increasing government seizures of middle-income property. (Donorcrats needn’t worry; they protect their investments via tax lawyers, often offshore.)
So it makes sense for Clinton’s core supporters to vote for her. But it makes no sense for the GOP’s core supporters to vote for their donorcrat’s candidate, who will continue to export jobs and import cheaper labour. They can only avoid property seizure by becoming poor.
In short, the United States is bifurcating into Belmont and Fishtown, as Charles Murray put it in Coming Apart.
Our American friend thinks Trump will win. I do not think he will even get the nomination. So Clinton will win.
But this election isn’t about who will win. The election is about whether there will be a single party that can once again speak for the disenfranchised middle or dozens of coalitions. I think the latter. But we shall see.
See also: Divorcing the Donorcrats: Free trade in the real world
Our American friend on National Review’s full-on hatefest against the working class