Election 2015 - 2

About those polls… #elxn42

Opinion polls: Taking the national pulse, or trying to

“…The random sample is the gold standard of polling: If a sample is chosen randomly from a population, that sample will have the characteristics of that population, within a margin. When I began in the industry in the 1980s, we were able to get excellent, if not perfect, random samples through random-digit dialling. Almost every Canadian household had a landline phone, creating potential access to almost the entire population. People were interested in answering our surveys, especially about politics and public affairs, and response rates were high. We had ideal conditions for practising our trade.

The first warning signs came in the decade of the nineties, when response rates started to drop. The following decades saw the growth of recorded messages, call display and cellphones, and further declines in response rates as the novelty of being wooed by pollsters wore off. I recall response rates of up to 80 per cent in the phone polls we did in the eighties, then dropping to the 40-per-cent to 50-per-cent range a decade later. Now, traditional telephone surveys (with live interviewers) are getting response rates of about 10 per cent or less.”


Vote. That is all.

  • Drunk_by_Noon

    Vote, if for no other reason than America and Canada having competent governments at the same time.
    It’s a worthy goal!

    • That’d be nice.

      • Drunk_by_Noon

        Could you imagine how much good would come from an effective and coordinated counter-jihad policy if The U.S., Canada, Australia, and The UK all simultaneously pulled their collective heads from their own butts?
        Hell, it might even give Europe the courage to save itself!

        • FunkyWinkerbeans

          I might have had faith in Australia if Turnbull had’t become PM.
          The UK is utterly hopeless.

        • Icebow

          The British muzz council has just attacked our new anti-terrorism as ‘McCarthyite’. Whatever annoys.

          • Drunk_by_Noon

            They wouldn’t hate it if it didn’t work, so time to double down.

          • Just posted on that.

  • David Murrell

    Much of what the post says is true. But various polls are now saying the same thing: that Justin Trudeau has it in the bag. Sometimes we can’t get everything we want, and we have to begin learning to live with Trudeau as prime minister. The corporate media will be supportive of Trudeau, as they are right now supportive of the corrupt Wynne government. While I will live under a Trudeau government, once he take power I will be undertaking a fairly strong research effort to watch and document the corruption that will soon be under way.

    • We will see, the polls have been disastrously wrong on too many occasions to ever be taken as gospel.

      • Icebow

        As witness the UK general election. Could’ve got 16/1 against the Tories’ majority.

      • canminuteman

        I agree, but… After reading the article, the logical conclusion is that the polls are favouring the conservatives (ie they will do even worse than the polls indicate). If fewer people are answering their phones the people who do will be the people who still have land lines and answer their phones. That would be older people, the people who are more likely to vote conservative.

        • It will be an interesting night. I recall Mike Duffy announcing a Kerry Landslide based on exit polls….

    • reidjr

      Corruption is not my biggest concern its the dream the Liberals have to change our culture.

  • mauser 98

    Truedope / Wynne tag team of incompetence.. Ontario headed for third world status…run don’t walk

  • Drunk_by_Noon

    May the ‘scary polls’ drive conservatives to the polls in record numbers.