Election 2015 - 2

Statistical tie in latest poll #elxn42

With less than 11 days until the votes are counted, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have the support of 36% of decided and leaning voters compared to 35% for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

Thomas Mulcair’s NDP, which topped the polls earlier in the campaign, has faded badly and now sits at 20%, according to the latest Mainstreet Research poll provided exclusively to Postmedia Network.

“The election really has come down to a two-horse race in the final stretch,” Mainstreet president Quito Maggi said.

Mainstreet surveyed 5,630 Canadians on Oct. 6 and 7 using interactive voice-response technology. The pollster says its results are accurate to within 1.31 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

I predict a conservative majority come election day.

Recall  a Labour landslide was expected in Britain – here’s why it’s good to doubt polls and ignore online “activism” as a measure of predicted electoral success…

Sorry, True Believers: Social Media Won’t Single-Handedly Elect the Next President

More… Tristram Hunt warns Labour against social media disconnect

  • Ron MacDonald

    Any day now Harper should be playing really dirty politics with Mulcair and Trudeau.

    • I do hope.

      • Ron MacDonald

        The “Last Week” surprise, they have to be holding back dirty.

        • Oracle9

          Time for the big guns. A fireside chat for Canadians calmly briefing us on the utter insanity of the three far-leftist parties.

    • David Murrell

      Except that it is the dominant liberal-left media who will be playing dirty politics against the Conservatives, with phony news stories, etc.

      • k1962

        Yep. I was just emailed an article by a lefty friend that the Globe and Mail says that Jews are pushing back against the Conservatives trying to woo them. I thought it was stupid, inaccurate and of course biased. Anything to take votes away from the Conservatives. Plenty of Jews are appreciative of Steven Harper’s support and we don’t forget how we were treated/ignored under Chretien. Tomorrow I will be taking my visiting son to the advanced polls to vote. I don’t forget and I don’t forgive.

      • ntt1

        But media backing and politicking is enraging more voters than it persuades.
        It must resemble being hugged by a leper to a spooked politico

    • dance…dancetotheradio

      My hope is that the Conservatives spent heavily and bought up a load of airtime far in excess of the other three parties for the last push.

  • David Murrell

    I really do hope your right, Cat. But Brian Lilley, an honest observer, sais that the Libs might win in Ontario:

    • mauser 98

      polls predicted Labour win in recent UK election ,, polls way off
      no poll said Dippys to win in Alberta

      • terrence

        The “polls” said the NON Democratic Party would win the last BC election in a province wide LANDSLIDE. The BC Liberals won in a landslide.

    • Anything can happen but I hold out little hope for Ontario, we are ruled by the Public Service Sector Unions,

      Wynne and Trudeau will rob us to pay them off.

      • David Murrell

        That Wynne and Trudeau will grease the unions is a certainty.

    • LauraS

      I live in Ontario. As much as I hope the polls are way off and we are heading for a Conservative majority, I am reminded that this province is filled with stupid voters, selfish “what’s in it for me” voters, union voters, and big government voters (but, I repeat myself). This is the province that has voted in McGuinty and Wynne again and again and again. The GTA is rife with “I vote CBC” signs on the front lawns of low information voters. I think Brian Lilley will be proven right, unfortunately. I expect huge turnout for Trudeau from Ontarians.

      • Javelina Harker

        You are 100% right, IMO. With the NDP being tits up because of LEAP (despite Mulcair’s charm), voters will go to the next best non-EEEvil conservative option: Trudeau.

        I shudder to think, but the Rosedale set will vote per the Rosedale set. Because they don’t see the wages of that choice.

  • Gary

    Today i heard new ads from Justine for FREE money if you vote for him along with more money for the TTC and roads.
    Forget that Wynne and McLiar stole the tax money from cars to fund election or buy off Unions when the auto brought in $3 billion a year but Wynne only spent $1 billion for roads and repairs and stole the balance.
    Justin should talk to Wynne to stop stealing so much tax money which forces him to tell greater lies for FREE money to the poor while he must find new was to tax people .

    • mauser 98

      free money is reality for teachers , public unions in Ontario
      they expect , demand it

    • The LPC is a criminal organization.

  • ontario john

    BREAKING NEWS FROM THE CBC! The muslim woman is shown on cbc taking the oath with a bag over her head. Although you can still see her eyes, the slut. Its a great day for Canada and islam. The caliphate is here. Praise Allah! The media is excited.

  • ontario john

    The media elites in downtown Toronto have been waging an anti-Harper war since the election was called. No scorn from the media when French citizen Mulcair gave his platform today, and had an NDP worshiper as host during question time. And the questions came from NDP supporters who read from scripts. During the question period with Harper actual reporters ganged up on Harper. And of course the media and Trudeau are upset today that Harper supposedly is putting those damn Christian refugees ahead of muslims. Good thing their is no Jewish refugees Harper is helping or media heads would explode. Trudeau even said that its disgusting that Harper is putting Christians ahead of peace loving muslims. Those damn Christians are always a problem to the Liberals and NDP.

    • David Murrell

      The big corporate media hate Christians and Jews with a pasion.

      • Alain

        To be frank they hate Canada, the real Canada not the mythical one invented by Trudeau Sr.

    • Alain

      Actually those same media elites have been waging an anti-Harper from the very first election campaign when they won a minority.

  • Oracle9

    Good point about the online activism skewing polls. The radical left are loud, but more of a minority than they think.

    • Alain


  • ntt1

    The NDP will return to their historical percentage in the high teens and the liberals will retake the oposition benches
    Harper will win with a
    Reduced majority

    • Solo712

      I don’t share your optimism. The decline of NDP strengthens Grits, not Tories. If NDP ends up with 22% or less we will have Trudeau for PM.